Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4931953282330453,
"p_shipped": 0.4943808667973897,
"model_mu": 4.5429015341479415,
"market_p": 0.5012987012987012,
"divergence": -0.00810337306565595,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2716,
"contribution": 0.09496,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2421,
"contribution": -0.08463,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1963,
"contribution": -0.06861,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1955,
"contribution": 0.06834,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under",
"share": 0.0631,
"contribution": -0.02207,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0314,
"contribution": 0.01097,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4625932518736231,
"p_shipped": 0.4638904201229627,
"model_mu": 5.04357914383301,
"market_p": 0.4742268041237113,
"divergence": -0.01163355225008822,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.3758,
"contribution": -0.11713,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2663,
"contribution": 0.08299,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.2201,
"contribution": -0.06861,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under",
"share": 0.0708,
"contribution": -0.02207,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0352,
"contribution": 0.01097,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.0317,
"contribution": -0.00988,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.514353697267243,
"p_shipped": 0.4952437280025202,
"model_mu": 7.689657200736964,
"market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
"divergence": 0.020813645587656415,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.339,
"contribution": 0.08248,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2328,
"contribution": -0.05663,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.175,
"contribution": 0.04257,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_wp_pb30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1366,
"contribution": -0.03323,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0596,
"contribution": 0.01451,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "MLB debut for the away starter",
"share": 0.057,
"contribution": -0.01388,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_debut",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5036673784367207,
"p_shipped": 0.4848230235232762,
"model_mu": 8.691557095136288,
"market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
"divergence": 0.015235501830036857,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.3324,
"contribution": 0.06554,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2872,
"contribution": -0.05663,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1685,
"contribution": -0.03323,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1382,
"contribution": 0.02725,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0736,
"contribution": 0.01451,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
}
]