Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5319437518874502,
"p_shipped": 0.5091511405057763,
"model_mu": 4.100631452644386,
"market_p": 0.5064935064935064,
"divergence": 0.025450245393943804,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~13 mph net",
"share": 0.4504,
"contribution": 0.15426,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2613,
"contribution": -0.0895,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.1255,
"contribution": 0.04297,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.115,
"contribution": 0.03939,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0477,
"contribution": 0.01635,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_gap_med",
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"a_sp_whiff"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5126422219539977,
"p_shipped": 0.5118411561964613,
"model_mu": 4.681014471374646,
"market_p": 0.5090439276485788,
"divergence": 0.0035982943054189143,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~12 mph net",
"share": 0.3687,
"contribution": 0.14653,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2508,
"contribution": -0.09968,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1732,
"contribution": -0.0688,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.1081,
"contribution": 0.04297,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.0991,
"contribution": 0.03939,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4665786284482387,
"p_shipped": 0.48757922365538187,
"model_mu": 7.259692854617248,
"market_p": 0.4845360824742268,
"divergence": -0.017957454025988084,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "16\u201330 day gap between starts for the home starter",
"share": 0.4208,
"contribution": -0.35018,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_gap_med",
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_debut"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2008,
"contribution": 0.16715,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1406,
"contribution": 0.11703,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: day game after a night game for the away team",
"share": 0.1218,
"contribution": -0.10136,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.116,
"contribution": 0.09652,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.455854308243909,
"p_shipped": 0.4794757492890987,
"model_mu": 7.7147433379661825,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": -0.02743618018796773,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "16\u201330 day gap between starts for the home starter",
"share": 0.4222,
"contribution": -0.35018,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_gap_med",
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_debut"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1981,
"contribution": 0.16434,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1411,
"contribution": 0.11703,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: day game after a night game for the away team",
"share": 0.1222,
"contribution": -0.10136,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1164,
"contribution": 0.09652,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
}
]
}
]