Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins

Sat 9/12 · 7:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.0

B cards like this have won 49% under · market 51%

TOTAL

no lean

model 49% under · market 49%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 8-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Starting pitchers leans under68%

The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games9%

The home team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 — above league averageagainst the under8%

Backup catcher starting8%

Strike-throwing umpire zone7%

Market: First-5-innings Under 4.0 at -112 (pinnacle, quoted 6:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~4.2 runs · divergence 8 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

anchor First-5 Under 4.0 -112 → closed -109 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Heavy recent starter workload

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.3829223193529358,
  "p_shipped": 0.47875297552436524,
  "model_mu": 3.436270320313769,
  "market_p": 0.4883720930232558,
  "divergence": -0.10544977367031999,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.5724,
    "contribution": -0.38996,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.189,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.126,
    "contribution": -0.08585,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.0677,
    "contribution": 0.04612,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.0299,
    "contribution": 0.02034,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.015,
    "contribution": -0.01021,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-11T23:00:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.40376847139635647,
  "p_shipped": 0.4872704986784857,
  "model_mu": 4.17814674772306,
  "market_p": 0.4883720930232558,
  "divergence": -0.08460362162689933,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T23:00:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.6797,
    "contribution": -0.38996,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0937,
    "contribution": -0.05378,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.0804,
    "contribution": 0.04612,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.075,
    "contribution": -0.04302,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0712,
    "contribution": -0.04083,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.44925800825660395,
  "p_shipped": 0.5050131695401994,
  "model_mu": 6.83015267560636,
  "market_p": 0.502577319587629,
  "divergence": -0.05331931133102502,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 1.2 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.473,
    "contribution": -0.28319,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1911,
    "contribution": 0.11441,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1117,
    "contribution": 0.06688,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0991,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0857,
    "contribution": -0.05129,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~9 mph net",
    "share": 0.0394,
    "contribution": -0.02358,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-11T23:00:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.46800541324757816,
  "p_shipped": 0.5104372066760201,
  "model_mu": 7.732753220384532,
  "market_p": 0.5128865979381443,
  "divergence": -0.04488118469056612,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T23:00:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 1.2 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.5552,
    "contribution": -0.28319,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2243,
    "contribution": 0.11441,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1311,
    "contribution": 0.06688,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.05,
    "contribution": -0.0255,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~10 mph net",
    "share": 0.0394,
    "contribution": -0.02011,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]