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first pitch 6:40 PM CDT
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Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins

Wed 9/2 · 6:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5
C
C cards like this have won 51% over · market 50%
TOTAL
no lean
model 50% over · market 52%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 5-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
86°F — heat carries the ball58%
Starting pitchers leans over — mostly the away team27%
Offense profile leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over7%
Umpire leans over2%
The home team allowing 4.7 runs a game, last 30 — above league average1%
WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game
No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher — graded at league average6%
Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at -108 (pinnacle, quoted 5:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.3 runs · divergence 5 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.
anchor First-5 Over 4.5 -108 → closed -108 · unchanged
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Catcher rest spotSeptember call-up lineupGetaway day (day game, then travel)High-scoring umpire
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5234452269366723,
  "p_shipped": 0.4707889441282449,
  "model_mu": 4.715728752549693,
  "market_p": 0.4716494845360826,
  "divergence": 0.051795742400589706,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "86\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.6241,
    "contribution": 0.14967,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2809,
    "contribution": 0.06737,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0664,
    "contribution": -0.01591,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.0185,
    "contribution": 0.00444,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 4.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.0101,
    "contribution": 0.00242,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T22:30:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5503618644913696,
  "p_shipped": 0.49581587265365434,
  "model_mu": 5.279586921110063,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": 0.05036186449136959,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T22:30:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "86\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.5764,
    "contribution": 0.14527,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2673,
    "contribution": 0.06737,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0695,
    "contribution": -0.01753,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.0596,
    "contribution": 0.01501,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "h_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.0176,
    "contribution": 0.00444,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 4.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.0096,
    "contribution": 0.00242,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5263838933626348,
  "p_shipped": 0.4884483272101525,
  "model_mu": 8.42204292850479,
  "market_p": 0.47814910025706947,
  "divergence": 0.04823479310556533,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.3877,
    "contribution": 0.10779,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "86\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2129,
    "contribution": 0.05918,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
    "share": 0.1569,
    "contribution": 0.04363,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_opener",
     "a_sp_inn1_whiff",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 4.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1236,
    "contribution": 0.03437,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The home team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.1189,
    "contribution": -0.03306,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T22:30:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5383480152994959,
  "p_shipped": 0.5041783257957602,
  "model_mu": 9.051672019146048,
  "market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
  "divergence": 0.02163850373137255,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T22:30:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.3911,
    "contribution": 0.10779,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "86\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2059,
    "contribution": 0.05673,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
    "share": 0.1583,
    "contribution": 0.04363,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_opener",
     "a_sp_inn1_whiff",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 4.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1247,
    "contribution": 0.03437,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The home team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.12,
    "contribution": -0.03306,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]