Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5485345684190516,
"p_shipped": 0.49802766771258244,
"model_mu": 4.245322432196508,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": 0.04853456841905157,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "fanduel",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.5986,
"contribution": 0.31054,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_days_rest_miss",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitch_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1662,
"contribution": -0.08621,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.0769,
"contribution": -0.03992,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0666,
"contribution": 0.03454,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"wind_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0478,
"contribution": 0.02479,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.044,
"contribution": -0.02282,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5584156696863927,
"p_shipped": 0.4718734776812775,
"model_mu": 5.559076920945801,
"market_p": 0.4780361757105944,
"divergence": 0.08037949397579824,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~8 mph net",
"share": 0.4565,
"contribution": 0.2891,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"is_retract"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 18.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2808,
"contribution": 0.17782,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1361,
"contribution": -0.08621,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over",
"share": 0.0636,
"contribution": 0.04031,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.063,
"contribution": -0.03992,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.3915396771928101,
"p_shipped": 0.4973425095584989,
"model_mu": 6.850893503093542,
"market_p": 0.48979591836734687,
"divergence": -0.0982562411745368,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "onexbet",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2926,
"contribution": -0.23294,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2643,
"contribution": 0.21046,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitch_miss",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2017,
"contribution": -0.16064,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.1154,
"contribution": -0.09192,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.0742,
"contribution": -0.05909,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The home team's bullpen rested the last three days",
"share": 0.0517,
"contribution": -0.04119,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4118303865284882,
"p_shipped": 0.5105957085774099,
"model_mu": 8.277372389880638,
"market_p": 0.5282051282051282,
"divergence": -0.11637474167664003,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.3109,
"contribution": -0.23294,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported open before first pitch",
"share": 0.24,
"contribution": 0.17981,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1918,
"contribution": -0.14367,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.1346,
"contribution": 0.10088,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.1227,
"contribution": -0.09192,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
}
]
}
]