Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers

Tue 9/8 · 6:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 7.0 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% under · market 48%

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 46% over · market 47%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away team31%

One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.24%

The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 gamesagainst the under21%

Bullpen leans under — mostly the home team12%

Retractable roof — reported closed before first pitchagainst the under11%

Market: Under 7.0 runs at +104 (pinnacle, quoted 5:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~7.6 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

anchor Under 7.0 runs +104 → closed +106 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Heavily used bullpen

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4751264423414725,
  "p_shipped": 0.4686658548751854,
  "model_mu": 3.4793391004381116,
  "market_p": 0.48195876288659806,
  "divergence": -0.006832320545125559,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
    "share": 0.4449,
    "contribution": -0.26021,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_inn1_whiff",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2592,
    "contribution": 0.15158,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1841,
    "contribution": -0.1077,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
    "share": 0.0583,
    "contribution": 0.03407,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "wx_miss",
     "wind_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire has given hitters the borderline call more than the league this past year",
    "share": 0.0536,
    "contribution": 0.03133,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T22:30:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.48901292337041974,
  "p_shipped": 0.462137979831761,
  "model_mu": 4.487785792871931,
  "market_p": 0.4690721649484536,
  "divergence": 0.01994075842196613,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T22:30:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
    "share": 0.4137,
    "contribution": -0.26021,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_inn1_whiff",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2865,
    "contribution": 0.18019,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1712,
    "contribution": -0.1077,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
    "share": 0.0788,
    "contribution": 0.04954,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire has given hitters the borderline call more than the league this past year",
    "share": 0.0498,
    "contribution": 0.03133,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.426694280858219,
  "p_shipped": 0.4616446464665055,
  "model_mu": 6.598851878149012,
  "market_p": 0.46923076923076923,
  "divergence": -0.04253648837255025,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3415,
    "contribution": -0.24191,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
    "share": 0.2568,
    "contribution": -0.18189,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_whiff",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2054,
    "contribution": 0.14553,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1363,
    "contribution": -0.09657,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.06,
    "contribution": 0.04249,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T22:30:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4644202214851744,
  "p_shipped": 0.4872835195542706,
  "model_mu": 7.559513328146393,
  "market_p": 0.5244215938303342,
  "divergence": -0.06000137234515973,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T22:30:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3128,
    "contribution": -0.24191,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
    "share": 0.2352,
    "contribution": -0.18189,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_whiff",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.213,
    "contribution": 0.16474,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1249,
    "contribution": -0.09657,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
    "share": 0.1141,
    "contribution": 0.08821,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]