Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers

Wed 9/9 · 6:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.0

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 49%

TOTAL

no lean

model 50% over · market 50%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Retractable roof — reported open before first pitch33%

Offense profile leans over — mostly the away team21%

The home starter strikes out 28.1% of batters, adjusted — a higher strikeout rate than averageagainst the over20%

Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over20%

Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year — fewer called strikes5%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at -101 (pinnacle, quoted 5:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~4.5 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

anchor First-5 Over 4.0 -101 → closed +100 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Getaway day (day game, then travel)Heavily used bullpenBullpen arms used two straight daysExtra innings yesterday

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.504683464073279,
  "p_shipped": 0.5008898703490404,
  "model_mu": 3.477471365516886,
  "market_p": 0.5038759689922481,
  "divergence": 0.0008074950810309511,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.322,
    "contribution": 0.14741,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 28.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.2704,
    "contribution": -0.12381,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2653,
    "contribution": -0.12148,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
    "share": 0.0742,
    "contribution": 0.03397,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "wx_miss",
     "wind_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0681,
    "contribution": 0.03116,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T22:30:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5414240147750787,
  "p_shipped": 0.486147625915819,
  "model_mu": 4.539131803310799,
  "market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
  "divergence": 0.05563590107998834,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T22:30:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported open before first pitch",
    "share": 0.3315,
    "contribution": 0.20063,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "is_retract",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2117,
    "contribution": 0.12809,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 28.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.2046,
    "contribution": -0.12381,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2007,
    "contribution": -0.12148,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0515,
    "contribution": 0.03116,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.47029338065031107,
  "p_shipped": 0.501757980612487,
  "model_mu": 6.852009753914778,
  "market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
  "divergence": -0.025850578218583553,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3013,
    "contribution": -0.26477,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1903,
    "contribution": -0.16722,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.177,
    "contribution": -0.15556,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
    "share": 0.1657,
    "contribution": 0.14566,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1657,
    "contribution": 0.14565,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T22:30:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5012469440945164,
  "p_shipped": 0.49529602543065726,
  "model_mu": 8.225470484926346,
  "market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
  "divergence": 0.005102985225621803,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T22:30:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3026,
    "contribution": -0.26477,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1911,
    "contribution": -0.16722,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1778,
    "contribution": -0.15556,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
    "share": 0.1665,
    "contribution": 0.14566,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.162,
    "contribution": 0.14171,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]