SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 1:10 PM CDT

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers

Mon 9/7 · 1:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 48% over · market 49%
TOTAL
no lean
model 49% over · market 50%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 2-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The away team above league average in home runs, last 30 games44%
Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over32%
Walk-prone umpire zone12%
Wind blowing in, ~9 mph netagainst the over8%
Behind the plate leans under — mostly the home teamagainst the over5%
Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at -103 (pinnacle, quoted 12:00 PM CDT) · the full picture prices it +107 · model expects ~5.0 runs · divergence 2 points — band none.
Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Heavily used bullpen
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.44945368085327575,
  "p_shipped": 0.4793344553071464,
  "model_mu": 3.8103834904176606,
  "market_p": 0.49612403100775193,
  "divergence": -0.04667035015447618,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.323,
    "contribution": 0.16123,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.258,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2546,
    "contribution": -0.1271,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1224,
    "contribution": -0.06108,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "wx_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0395,
    "contribution": -0.01971,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 1.1 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.0025,
    "contribution": -0.00126,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-07T17:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5048668318448316,
  "p_shipped": 0.482969557300383,
  "model_mu": 5.030220099012753,
  "market_p": 0.4896373056994819,
  "divergence": 0.015229526145349725,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T17:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.4433,
    "contribution": 0.17762,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3172,
    "contribution": -0.1271,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1152,
    "contribution": 0.04617,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~9 mph net",
    "share": 0.0751,
    "contribution": -0.03007,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0492,
    "contribution": -0.01971,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.45113425564964044,
  "p_shipped": 0.505292196408567,
  "model_mu": 7.118481824864689,
  "market_p": 0.5115681233933163,
  "divergence": -0.06043386774367582,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3389,
    "contribution": -0.26532,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2353,
    "contribution": 0.18421,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1864,
    "contribution": -0.14596,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1093,
    "contribution": 0.08557,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "wind_miss",
     "is_retract"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0758,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0543,
    "contribution": 0.04249,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-07T17:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5154188636043763,
  "p_shipped": 0.488656206140547,
  "model_mu": 9.207120931198343,
  "market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
  "divergence": 0.019274904735481657,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T17:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2924,
    "contribution": -0.26532,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2235,
    "contribution": 0.20283,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.163,
    "contribution": 0.14793,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1608,
    "contribution": -0.14596,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1603,
    "contribution": 0.14543,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "is_retract"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]