Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48475031830364923,
"p_shipped": 0.4739540425707484,
"model_mu": 3.718717286752488,
"market_p": 0.4883720930232558,
"divergence": -0.003621774719606563,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 26.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3301,
"contribution": -0.14866,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1932,
"contribution": 0.08699,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1822,
"contribution": -0.08206,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1517,
"contribution": 0.0683,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team playing like a .613 club right now",
"share": 0.1165,
"contribution": 0.05244,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.0263,
"contribution": -0.01186,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.49877684182904664,
"p_shipped": 0.5140944285974632,
"model_mu": 4.160550353358812,
"market_p": 0.5193798449612403,
"divergence": -0.02060300313219371,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 26.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.4059,
"contribution": -0.14866,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2307,
"contribution": 0.08451,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1818,
"contribution": -0.06658,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team playing like a .613 club right now",
"share": 0.1432,
"contribution": 0.05244,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0384,
"contribution": 0.01407,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.45168382758181636,
"p_shipped": 0.4948773301526491,
"model_mu": 7.426621148440621,
"market_p": 0.48711340206185555,
"divergence": -0.035429574480039194,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter has thrown 82 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.3731,
"contribution": -0.14435,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Both teams' bullpens rested the last three days",
"share": 0.2031,
"contribution": -0.07857,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1466,
"contribution": 0.05672,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1444,
"contribution": -0.05585,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1328,
"contribution": 0.05137,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4570603744775986,
"p_shipped": 0.4933533301007461,
"model_mu": 8.678886423442378,
"market_p": 0.48071979434447304,
"divergence": -0.02365941986687442,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter has thrown 82 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2473,
"contribution": -0.14435,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2259,
"contribution": 0.13182,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1993,
"contribution": -0.11634,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Both teams' bullpens rested the last three days",
"share": 0.1346,
"contribution": -0.07857,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.0972,
"contribution": 0.05672,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.0957,
"contribution": -0.05585,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
}
]
}
]