Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5800294413180204,
"p_shipped": 0.48945718698382706,
"model_mu": 4.337280538807493,
"market_p": 0.5064935064935064,
"divergence": 0.07353593482451393,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3262,
"contribution": 0.16613,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2529,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1602,
"contribution": 0.08159,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team playing like a .611 club right now",
"share": 0.1328,
"contribution": 0.06765,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1018,
"contribution": 0.05184,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0261,
"contribution": 0.01329,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wx_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5953351530086759,
"p_shipped": 0.47264085120164684,
"model_mu": 4.762182220769379,
"market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
"divergence": 0.11471499796991613,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.408,
"contribution": 0.16613,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team playing like a .611 club right now",
"share": 0.1662,
"contribution": 0.06765,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1273,
"contribution": 0.05184,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1145,
"contribution": 0.04663,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1133,
"contribution": -0.04613,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.0707,
"contribution": 0.02876,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.511103827431455,
"p_shipped": 0.5061911098645409,
"model_mu": 7.919562341782167,
"market_p": 0.5142118863049095,
"divergence": -0.0031080588734545556,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.341,
"contribution": 0.1585,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitch_miss",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_bf_per_start"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
"share": 0.144,
"contribution": -0.06695,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1339,
"contribution": 0.06224,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1277,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under",
"share": 0.1068,
"contribution": -0.04963,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.065,
"contribution": -0.0302,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"wind_miss",
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for both teams \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0465,
"contribution": -0.02163,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_framing_miss",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0201,
"contribution": 0.00932,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0151,
"contribution": 0.00703,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_tz2",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5430303664352598,
"p_shipped": 0.49199008045518616,
"model_mu": 8.242628016980536,
"market_p": 0.4743589743589744,
"divergence": 0.06867139207628542,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3742,
"contribution": 0.1585,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitch_miss",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_bf_per_start"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
"share": 0.1581,
"contribution": -0.06695,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.147,
"contribution": 0.06224,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1211,
"contribution": 0.05131,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under",
"share": 0.1172,
"contribution": -0.04963,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0604,
"contribution": -0.02557,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.022,
"contribution": 0.00932,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
}
]
}
]