Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.49849432203204536,
"p_shipped": 0.45969477637607803,
"model_mu": 4.407732967879319,
"market_p": 0.4780361757105944,
"divergence": 0.020458146321450932,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter down 2.3 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.2822,
"contribution": 0.11502,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.276,
"contribution": -0.1125,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2369,
"contribution": 0.09657,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1091,
"contribution": 0.04446,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0959,
"contribution": -0.03908,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4948457160623156,
"p_shipped": 0.4697948463409084,
"model_mu": 5.6064792646332435,
"market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
"divergence": 0.01164158169539048,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter down 2.3 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.2831,
"contribution": 0.11502,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.2769,
"contribution": -0.1125,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over",
"share": 0.2737,
"contribution": 0.11122,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0962,
"contribution": -0.03908,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.0702,
"contribution": 0.02853,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4317653992896496,
"p_shipped": 0.5081146221542128,
"model_mu": 6.937930768355507,
"market_p": 0.5192802056555269,
"divergence": -0.08751480636587733,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter down 2.3 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.2842,
"contribution": 0.13936,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_whiff",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2627,
"contribution": -0.12883,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1678,
"contribution": -0.08228,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1129,
"contribution": -0.05538,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0589,
"contribution": -0.02889,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0575,
"contribution": -0.02821,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"wind_miss",
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.0558,
"contribution": -0.02736,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"a_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4456215579735032,
"p_shipped": 0.47322582686375647,
"model_mu": 8.59898735157114,
"market_p": 0.4717948717948718,
"divergence": -0.02617331382136856,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter down 2.3 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.2784,
"contribution": 0.13936,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_whiff",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2573,
"contribution": -0.12883,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1644,
"contribution": -0.08228,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1357,
"contribution": -0.06795,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1065,
"contribution": 0.0533,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0577,
"contribution": -0.02889,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
}
]
}
]