SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 5:40 PM CDT

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

Wed 9/9 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 47% over · market 48%
TOTAL
no lean
model 53% under · market 53%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 1-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The away starter down 2.3 mph in his last start28%
Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year — more called strikesagainst the over28%
Offense profile leans over27%
Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over10%
Retractable roof — reported closed before first pitch7%
Market: First-5-innings Over 5.0 at +100 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · the full picture prices it +113 · model expects ~5.6 runs · divergence 1 point — band none.
Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean. · the morning pass leaned B; this pass stands down.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Getaway day (day game, then travel)Catcher rest spot
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.49849432203204536,
  "p_shipped": 0.45969477637607803,
  "model_mu": 4.407732967879319,
  "market_p": 0.4780361757105944,
  "divergence": 0.020458146321450932,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter down 2.3 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.2822,
    "contribution": 0.11502,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_inn1_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.276,
    "contribution": -0.1125,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2369,
    "contribution": 0.09657,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1091,
    "contribution": 0.04446,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0959,
    "contribution": -0.03908,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4948457160623156,
  "p_shipped": 0.4697948463409084,
  "model_mu": 5.6064792646332435,
  "market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
  "divergence": 0.01164158169539048,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter down 2.3 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.2831,
    "contribution": 0.11502,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_inn1_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.2769,
    "contribution": -0.1125,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over",
    "share": 0.2737,
    "contribution": 0.11122,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0962,
    "contribution": -0.03908,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
    "share": 0.0702,
    "contribution": 0.02853,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4317653992896496,
  "p_shipped": 0.5081146221542128,
  "model_mu": 6.937930768355507,
  "market_p": 0.5192802056555269,
  "divergence": -0.08751480636587733,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter down 2.3 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.2842,
    "contribution": 0.13936,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_whiff",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2627,
    "contribution": -0.12883,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1678,
    "contribution": -0.08228,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1129,
    "contribution": -0.05538,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "h_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0589,
    "contribution": -0.02889,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0575,
    "contribution": -0.02821,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "wind_miss",
     "is_retract",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
    "share": 0.0558,
    "contribution": -0.02736,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_unearned30",
     "a_err30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4456215579735032,
  "p_shipped": 0.47322582686375647,
  "model_mu": 8.59898735157114,
  "market_p": 0.4717948717948718,
  "divergence": -0.02617331382136856,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter down 2.3 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.2784,
    "contribution": 0.13936,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_whiff",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2573,
    "contribution": -0.12883,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1644,
    "contribution": -0.08228,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.1357,
    "contribution": -0.06795,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
    "share": 0.1065,
    "contribution": 0.0533,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0577,
    "contribution": -0.02889,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]