Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5629948999923007,
"p_shipped": 0.4722961856622565,
"model_mu": 4.1798071055436,
"market_p": 0.4780361757105944,
"divergence": 0.08495872428170625,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3433,
"contribution": 0.15614,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_il_return",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1907,
"contribution": 0.08674,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1805,
"contribution": -0.0821,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1402,
"contribution": 0.06379,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team playing like a .615 club right now",
"share": 0.133,
"contribution": 0.06051,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire has given pitchers the borderline call more than the league this past year",
"share": 0.0122,
"contribution": -0.00557,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5942789926195574,
"p_shipped": 0.5001440465809691,
"model_mu": 4.997264827840041,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": 0.09427899261955741,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3433,
"contribution": 0.15614,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_il_return",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1907,
"contribution": 0.08674,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1743,
"contribution": 0.0793,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1465,
"contribution": -0.06663,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team playing like a .615 club right now",
"share": 0.133,
"contribution": 0.06051,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire has given pitchers the borderline call more than the league this past year",
"share": 0.0122,
"contribution": -0.00557,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4979987888301504,
"p_shipped": 0.487900021345532,
"model_mu": 7.315643087511967,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": 0.0147083003982737,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2968,
"contribution": -0.08198,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.225,
"contribution": 0.06217,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1835,
"contribution": 0.05069,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"wind_miss",
"is_retract"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.1489,
"contribution": 0.04113,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bf_per_start"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1458,
"contribution": -0.04029,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5226035480173491,
"p_shipped": 0.49482584024411996,
"model_mu": 8.824170831527608,
"market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
"divergence": 0.03160097732326167,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.3716,
"contribution": 0.1322,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2304,
"contribution": -0.08198,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1747,
"contribution": 0.06217,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.1156,
"contribution": 0.04113,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bf_per_start"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
"share": 0.1076,
"contribution": -0.03829,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
}
]