Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.46386667771916024,
"p_shipped": 0.4415925738013352,
"model_mu": 3.480864064826902,
"market_p": 0.4690721649484536,
"divergence": -0.005205487229293371,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over",
"share": 0.2918,
"contribution": 0.13126,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2863,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1834,
"contribution": -0.0825,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 476 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1039,
"contribution": -0.04674,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0764,
"contribution": 0.03435,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under",
"share": 0.0582,
"contribution": -0.02618,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T16:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5214625657766352,
"p_shipped": 0.47160754977514074,
"model_mu": 4.713065421001165,
"market_p": 0.4728682170542636,
"divergence": 0.048594348722371616,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T16:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over",
"share": 0.3965,
"contribution": 0.14504,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.1986,
"contribution": 0.07264,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1832,
"contribution": -0.06703,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 476 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1278,
"contribution": -0.04674,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0939,
"contribution": 0.03435,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4180609913694089,
"p_shipped": 0.4966585106239889,
"model_mu": 6.78991285620756,
"market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
"divergence": -0.08836574384910023,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3591,
"contribution": -0.18189,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
"share": 0.2087,
"contribution": -0.10568,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1172,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1068,
"contribution": 0.05409,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"wind_miss",
"is_retract"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1002,
"contribution": -0.05076,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.075,
"contribution": 0.03796,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.033,
"contribution": -0.01672,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"a_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T16:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48709007014286176,
"p_shipped": 0.5052340940228546,
"model_mu": 8.367378993759308,
"market_p": 0.5141388174807198,
"divergence": -0.027048747337858003,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T16:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2858,
"contribution": -0.18189,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2131,
"contribution": 0.1356,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1957,
"contribution": 0.12453,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
"share": 0.1661,
"contribution": -0.10568,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.0798,
"contribution": -0.05076,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.0596,
"contribution": 0.03796,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
}
]
}
]