SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
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first pitch 12:40 PM CDT
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Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins

Sun 9/6 · 12:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 48% over · market 48%
TOTAL
no lean
model 51% over · market 52%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 4-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The away team above league average in home runs, last 30 games34%
Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over27%
Starting pitchers leans over22%
Day gameagainst the over10%
Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year — more called strikesagainst the over6%
Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at +100 (pinnacle, quoted 11:30 AM CDT) · the full picture prices it +107 · model expects ~5.2 runs · divergence 4 points — band none.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Getaway day (day game, then travel)High-scoring umpire
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5161360220175815,
  "p_shipped": 0.475900547068592,
  "model_mu": 4.146547510446974,
  "market_p": 0.4793814432989691,
  "divergence": 0.036754578718612374,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3213,
    "contribution": 0.21762,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2693,
    "contribution": -0.18239,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
    "share": 0.223,
    "contribution": 0.15099,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1222,
    "contribution": -0.08274,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.0642,
    "contribution": -0.0435,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5234392389173379,
  "p_shipped": 0.48221004676443324,
  "model_mu": 5.237349519839057,
  "market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
  "divergence": 0.04023510455041279,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3425,
    "contribution": 0.2314,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.27,
    "contribution": -0.18239,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
    "share": 0.2235,
    "contribution": 0.15099,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.0996,
    "contribution": -0.06726,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.0644,
    "contribution": -0.0435,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.523797741043073,
  "p_shipped": 0.5166158340993309,
  "model_mu": 7.413545028956583,
  "market_p": 0.5141388174807198,
  "divergence": 0.009658923562353205,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3161,
    "contribution": -0.22494,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.294,
    "contribution": 0.20927,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
    "share": 0.2151,
    "contribution": 0.15306,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_bf_per_start"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0956,
    "contribution": -0.06804,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_k_pct30",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.0792,
    "contribution": -0.0564,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5474708813004516,
  "p_shipped": 0.513238365951072,
  "model_mu": 8.936325633738111,
  "market_p": 0.5192802056555269,
  "divergence": 0.028190675644924723,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2789,
    "contribution": -0.22494,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2764,
    "contribution": 0.22295,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
    "share": 0.1898,
    "contribution": 0.15306,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_bf_per_start"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1705,
    "contribution": 0.13753,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0844,
    "contribution": -0.06804,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_k_pct30",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]