Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.45940177446861796,
"p_shipped": 0.47979094873260597,
"model_mu": 3.4971822891858833,
"market_p": 0.49090909090909085,
"divergence": -0.03150731644047289,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3711,
"contribution": 0.23669,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.331,
"contribution": -0.21108,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1327,
"contribution": -0.08462,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.13,
"contribution": -0.08289,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0353,
"contribution": 0.0225,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T19:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4695492385584164,
"p_shipped": 0.4771183798846851,
"model_mu": 4.496081146179644,
"market_p": 0.4883720930232558,
"divergence": -0.01882285446483939,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T19:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3768,
"contribution": 0.25048,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3175,
"contribution": -0.21108,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1273,
"contribution": -0.08462,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1014,
"contribution": -0.06742,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.0512,
"contribution": 0.03404,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter back from a 30+ day MLB gap \u2014 established arm",
"share": 0.0258,
"contribution": -0.01717,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_return_vet",
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.43550818003714675,
"p_shipped": 0.4769564883207136,
"model_mu": 7.36549547938554,
"market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
"divergence": -0.05027993365794364,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.3016,
"contribution": -0.26295,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2955,
"contribution": -0.2576,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2772,
"contribution": 0.24171,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0657,
"contribution": 0.05732,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"wind_miss",
"is_retract"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0599,
"contribution": 0.05223,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T19:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4650234712200929,
"p_shipped": 0.4642236739280021,
"model_mu": 8.780170157946474,
"market_p": 0.48205128205128206,
"divergence": -0.01702781083118915,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T19:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2719,
"contribution": -0.26295,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2664,
"contribution": -0.2576,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2641,
"contribution": 0.25539,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1436,
"contribution": 0.13883,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.054,
"contribution": 0.05223,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
}
]