Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5792217194277041,
"p_shipped": 0.5226206216914477,
"model_mu": 3.975891262794848,
"market_p": 0.5347043701799487,
"divergence": 0.04451734924775541,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 17.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3157,
"contribution": 0.28541,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2839,
"contribution": 0.25671,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2202,
"contribution": -0.19908,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1424,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0239,
"contribution": 0.02164,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0138,
"contribution": 0.0125,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wx_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.6255341551638126,
"p_shipped": 0.5569495698714799,
"model_mu": 5.219350580847625,
"market_p": 0.5257731958762887,
"divergence": 0.09976095928752393,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3544,
"contribution": 0.3036,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 17.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3332,
"contribution": 0.28541,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2324,
"contribution": -0.19908,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.0474,
"contribution": 0.04061,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.0327,
"contribution": 0.02797,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5825711291236786,
"p_shipped": 0.5059156880855621,
"model_mu": 8.041065341473033,
"market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
"divergence": 0.08642717025478397,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
"share": 0.2782,
"contribution": 0.26674,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_inn1_whiff",
"h_sp_whiff",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2661,
"contribution": -0.25505,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.259,
"contribution": 0.24833,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.0773,
"contribution": 0.07413,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0619,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
"share": 0.0574,
"contribution": 0.05504,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.6284090722600671,
"p_shipped": 0.4903956668012838,
"model_mu": 10.487722461370085,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": 0.14511858382819043,
"band": "A",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2859,
"contribution": 0.27964,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
"share": 0.2727,
"contribution": 0.26674,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_inn1_whiff",
"h_sp_whiff",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2608,
"contribution": -0.25505,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans over",
"share": 0.0938,
"contribution": 0.09169,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.0868,
"contribution": -0.08487,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_framing_miss",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
}
]