SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 9:15 PM CDT

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Sat 9/19 · 9:15 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: unknown
TOTAL · UNDER 8.0 RUNS
B
B cards like this have won 52% under · market 49% · stake 0.5u
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 52% under · market 51%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The away team allowing 5.2 runs a game, last 30 — above league average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under27%
Bullpen leans under — mostly the home team26%
Schedule spot leans over — mostly the home teamagainst the under21%
Offense profile leans under — mostly the home team12%
Recent call-ups in both lineupsagainst the under6%
WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game
No umpire zone data — graded on league-typical assumptions8%
Market: Under 8.0 runs at -104 (pinnacle, quoted 8:15 AM CDT) · model expects ~7.1 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.
Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · final grade comes about 70 minutes before first pitch.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Heavily used bullpen
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. Umpire not yet confirmed. Lineups not posted at grade time.
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.46675345255383816,
  "p_shipped": 0.4771318427872967,
  "model_mu": 4.015647272880283,
  "market_p": 0.4870466321243523,
  "divergence": -0.02029317957051413,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2289,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.1877,
    "contribution": -0.10564,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
    "share": 0.1785,
    "contribution": -0.10042,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~4 mph net",
    "share": 0.1733,
    "contribution": 0.09754,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1224,
    "contribution": 0.06887,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_bb30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1092,
    "contribution": 0.06144,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4197366527355865,
  "p_shipped": 0.5005554777340712,
  "model_mu": 7.0970033274636855,
  "market_p": 0.5077720207253886,
  "divergence": -0.0880353679898021,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2718,
    "contribution": -0.20473,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2619,
    "contribution": -0.19725,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2098,
    "contribution": 0.15806,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k",
     "h_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1152,
    "contribution": -0.08679,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_bb30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0788,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.0624,
    "contribution": 0.04701,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_recent_debuts",
     "h_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]