Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Thu 9/10 · 9:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 8.0 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% under · market 49% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 49%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The away team allowing 5.9 runs a game, last 30 — above league average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under36%

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games28%

90°F — heat carries the ballagainst the under19%

Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than mostagainst the under9%

The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three daysagainst the under8%

Market: Under 8.0 runs at -101 (pinnacle, quoted 8:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~8.2 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.5 -103 → closed -102 · away

TOTALanchor Under 8.0 runs -101 → closed +100 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Getaway day (day game, then travel)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
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  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
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  "p_shipped": 0.49054041233257356,
  "model_mu": 4.58291629435867,
  "market_p": 0.49612403100775193,
  "divergence": 0.04870598541300852,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.6462,
    "contribution": 0.22887,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.2082,
    "contribution": -0.07376,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 18.5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.0574,
    "contribution": 0.02035,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.0467,
    "contribution": 0.01655,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0414,
    "contribution": 0.01465,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
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  "rung": "l1",
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  "model_mu": 5.389597322594841,
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  "divergence": 0.053690096133302334,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T01:00:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.635,
    "contribution": 0.22729,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.2061,
    "contribution": -0.07376,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 18.5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.0568,
    "contribution": 0.02035,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.0539,
    "contribution": 0.0193,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0409,
    "contribution": 0.01465,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0072,
    "contribution": -0.00259,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 5,
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  "model_mu": 7.667572100056608,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": -0.09452849154385762,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.3196,
    "contribution": -0.2185,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2536,
    "contribution": -0.17338,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.1706,
    "contribution": 0.11663,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.103,
    "contribution": -0.07038,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.0791,
    "contribution": 0.0541,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.0741,
    "contribution": 0.05068,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-10T01:00:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 5,
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  "divergence": -0.09120248286101151,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T01:00:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.3612,
    "contribution": -0.2185,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2758,
    "contribution": -0.16687,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.1899,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.0894,
    "contribution": 0.0541,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.0838,
    "contribution": 0.05068,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]