Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5203820310949725,
"p_shipped": 0.48715460937291455,
"model_mu": 4.25826796840274,
"market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
"divergence": 0.03976187605621273,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.5114,
"contribution": 0.23602,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1494,
"contribution": -0.06894,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1312,
"contribution": -0.06054,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1217,
"contribution": -0.05615,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over",
"share": 0.0863,
"contribution": 0.03982,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T01:00:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48483500354643405,
"p_shipped": 0.47031096994922167,
"model_mu": 4.6580137056433655,
"market_p": 0.46649484536082475,
"divergence": 0.0183401581856093,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T01:00:24Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.2479,
"contribution": 0.0849,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over",
"share": 0.21,
"contribution": 0.07189,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2013,
"contribution": -0.06894,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1768,
"contribution": -0.06054,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.164,
"contribution": -0.05615,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.47457502078848274,
"p_shipped": 0.4899820787360088,
"model_mu": 7.666963600890674,
"market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
"divergence": -0.02284765962388846,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.3175,
"contribution": -0.21286,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1804,
"contribution": -0.12092,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1768,
"contribution": 0.11854,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1127,
"contribution": 0.07555,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.107,
"contribution": -0.07176,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_framing_miss",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.1055,
"contribution": 0.07076,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T01:00:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4556772702058756,
"p_shipped": 0.47724651607246715,
"model_mu": 8.208556600330274,
"market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
"divergence": -0.03275460640080824,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T01:00:24Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.392,
"contribution": -0.21286,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1752,
"contribution": -0.09514,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1634,
"contribution": -0.08873,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1391,
"contribution": 0.07555,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.1303,
"contribution": 0.07076,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
}
]