Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.551285356254713,
"p_shipped": 0.4570931083960938,
"model_mu": 4.633949214660722,
"market_p": 0.48186528497409326,
"divergence": 0.06942007128061972,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "86\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.3539,
"contribution": 0.22807,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1999,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1993,
"contribution": 0.12843,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_days_rest_miss",
"h_sp_pitch_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1201,
"contribution": -0.0774,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over",
"share": 0.0996,
"contribution": 0.06419,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.0272,
"contribution": 0.01754,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T00:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5770541836760607,
"p_shipped": 0.4642075582950755,
"model_mu": 5.508644677945259,
"market_p": 0.4690721649484536,
"divergence": 0.10798201872760704,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T00:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "86\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.349,
"contribution": 0.23076,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
"share": 0.2508,
"contribution": 0.16582,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over",
"share": 0.1417,
"contribution": 0.09367,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.1414,
"contribution": -0.09352,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1171,
"contribution": -0.0774,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5188371506937904,
"p_shipped": 0.4924158334088809,
"model_mu": 8.542188662279116,
"market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
"divergence": 0.02529709901420385,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.248,
"contribution": -0.21473,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2182,
"contribution": 0.18893,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitch_miss",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
"share": 0.1732,
"contribution": 0.14994,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1518,
"contribution": 0.1314,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "86\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1241,
"contribution": 0.10741,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0848,
"contribution": -0.07341,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T00:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5654975184216677,
"p_shipped": 0.48804971984722373,
"model_mu": 9.798065797385553,
"market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
"divergence": 0.07449494772758031,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T00:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
"share": 0.3435,
"contribution": 0.31645,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2331,
"contribution": -0.21473,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
"share": 0.1627,
"contribution": 0.14994,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1426,
"contribution": 0.1314,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "86\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1181,
"contribution": 0.10878,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open"
]
}
]
}
]