Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48647510798885174,
"p_shipped": 0.5023988980744518,
"model_mu": 4.234230508702654,
"market_p": 0.5090909090909091,
"divergence": -0.02261580110205741,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter up 1.2 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.5092,
"contribution": -0.13565,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_gap_med",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.3016,
"contribution": 0.08034,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.0932,
"contribution": 0.02483,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
"share": 0.0634,
"contribution": 0.01688,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0326,
"contribution": -0.00868,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T01:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48664141896215507,
"p_shipped": 0.5079636892652698,
"model_mu": 4.853651317129541,
"market_p": 0.5116279069767442,
"divergence": -0.024986488014589137,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T01:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter up 1.2 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.5433,
"contribution": -0.13565,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_gap_med",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1985,
"contribution": 0.04956,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1667,
"contribution": 0.04163,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
"share": 0.0676,
"contribution": 0.01688,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0239,
"contribution": 0.00597,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4985751122527956,
"p_shipped": 0.5083422984667233,
"model_mu": 7.505542432791606,
"market_p": 0.5167958656330749,
"divergence": -0.018220753380279286,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The home team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.3363,
"contribution": 0.14292,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2208,
"contribution": -0.09385,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1294,
"contribution": -0.05498,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_framing_miss",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "16\u201330 day gap between starts for the home starter",
"share": 0.1248,
"contribution": -0.05302,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_gap_med",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1067,
"contribution": 0.04535,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans over",
"share": 0.082,
"contribution": 0.03486,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T01:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.49635357414814074,
"p_shipped": 0.4809192824517526,
"model_mu": 8.516233598054665,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": 0.013063085716264022,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T01:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The home team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.403,
"contribution": 0.14292,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2214,
"contribution": -0.07852,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "16\u201330 day gap between starts for the home starter",
"share": 0.1495,
"contribution": -0.05302,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_gap_med",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1279,
"contribution": 0.04535,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans over",
"share": 0.0983,
"contribution": 0.03486,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
}
]
}
]