Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Sun 9/6 · 8:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 3.5

B cards like this have won 49% over · market 47%

TOTAL

no lean

model 48% over · market 48%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Game-time temperature 82°F51%

Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year — more called strikesagainst the over20%

Both starters strike out 28.8% of batters, adjusted — a higher strikeout rate than averageagainst the over16%

The away team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches7%

The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 gamesagainst the over6%

Market: First-5-innings Over 3.5 at +107 (pinnacle, quoted 7:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~4.2 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade B. · new at this pass — the morning pass had no lean.

anchor First-5 Over 3.5 +107 → closed +104 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Starter recently back from injury

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

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  "divergence": 0.05178548175047881,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
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  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 79\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.4768,
    "contribution": 0.17718,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.2191,
    "contribution": -0.08141,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Both starters strike out 28.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.1733,
    "contribution": -0.0644,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
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     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.0738,
    "contribution": 0.02741,
    "kind": "driver",
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     "h_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
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    "share": 0.057,
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    "kind": "driver",
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     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
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  "band": "B",
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  "lineup_known": 1,
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  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
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    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
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    "share": 0.205,
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    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
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    "share": 0.1621,
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   {
    "family": "battery",
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   },
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    ]
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 },
 {
  "market": "total",
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  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
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    "share": 0.2364,
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    "features": [
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     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
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    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
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    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The home team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.2079,
    "contribution": 0.10178,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
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     "a_bp_b2b"
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   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 28.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.188,
    "contribution": -0.09205,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
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     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
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   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 79\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.143,
    "contribution": 0.07002,
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    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open"
    ]
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  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
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  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
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    "share": 0.2322,
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     "h_rest0",
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    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2043,
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    "features": [
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     "a_off_hr30"
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   {
    "family": "bullpen",
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   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
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   },
   {
    "family": "park",
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     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]