Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.41335093889724417,
"p_shipped": 0.4862357146281334,
"model_mu": 3.895348305356261,
"market_p": 0.4987080103359174,
"divergence": -0.08535707143867322,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
"share": 0.5031,
"contribution": -0.3015,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"a_sp_prev_heavy",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2149,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~5 mph net",
"share": 0.1798,
"contribution": 0.10774,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0523,
"contribution": -0.03132,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.032,
"contribution": 0.01915,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_wp_pb30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team playing like a .598 club right now",
"share": 0.018,
"contribution": 0.01078,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_elo",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T01:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.47193165612012467,
"p_shipped": 0.47213169980727937,
"model_mu": 4.856282170704938,
"market_p": 0.4742268041237113,
"divergence": -0.0022951480035866556,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T01:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
"share": 0.5843,
"contribution": -0.3015,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"a_sp_prev_heavy",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~4 mph net",
"share": 0.2294,
"contribution": 0.11837,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.085,
"contribution": 0.04387,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.0805,
"contribution": 0.04152,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team playing like a .598 club right now",
"share": 0.0209,
"contribution": 0.01078,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_elo",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.44609494500439695,
"p_shipped": 0.48719263816070496,
"model_mu": 7.837917345551959,
"market_p": 0.4845360824742268,
"divergence": -0.038441137469829856,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
"share": 0.3234,
"contribution": -0.28462,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2914,
"contribution": 0.25646,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_tz2",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1622,
"contribution": -0.14272,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0674,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0604,
"contribution": -0.05313,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_framing_miss",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0504,
"contribution": 0.04435,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The home team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.0449,
"contribution": 0.03952,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T01:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.49433468437946604,
"p_shipped": 0.4812921029760149,
"model_mu": 8.374320626978875,
"market_p": 0.4922680412371133,
"divergence": 0.00206664314235272,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T01:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
"share": 0.3828,
"contribution": -0.28462,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3449,
"contribution": 0.25646,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_tz2",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1573,
"contribution": -0.11694,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0596,
"contribution": 0.04435,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans over",
"share": 0.0554,
"contribution": 0.04117,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_asof",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
}
]
}
]