Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.6004617952229679,
"p_shipped": 0.548173799806001,
"model_mu": 5.058240771451349,
"market_p": 0.5348837209302325,
"divergence": 0.06557807429273543,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~5 mph net",
"share": 0.2881,
"contribution": 0.12227,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.2759,
"contribution": 0.11709,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_k_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1636,
"contribution": 0.06943,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"h_sp_prev_heavy",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1301,
"contribution": 0.0552,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1189,
"contribution": -0.05044,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0234,
"contribution": 0.00991,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T01:00:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5389660069253481,
"p_shipped": 0.48340736276938834,
"model_mu": 5.59136014676955,
"market_p": 0.4780361757105944,
"divergence": 0.060929831214753705,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T01:00:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.3724,
"contribution": 0.11709,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_k_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~4 mph net",
"share": 0.3425,
"contribution": 0.1077,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1604,
"contribution": -0.05044,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.0571,
"contribution": 0.01795,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0423,
"contribution": -0.01331,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"a_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_prev_heavy"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0253,
"contribution": -0.00795,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5695152083573644,
"p_shipped": 0.5117154131370436,
"model_mu": 8.933735806975069,
"market_p": 0.5116279069767442,
"divergence": 0.05788730138062015,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3208,
"contribution": 0.16609,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.208,
"contribution": -0.10771,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1732,
"contribution": 0.08966,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitch_miss",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_bf_per_start"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1066,
"contribution": 0.05521,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.103,
"contribution": -0.05333,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0884,
"contribution": 0.04575,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T01:00:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5210062983444861,
"p_shipped": 0.49263754721010566,
"model_mu": 8.484970338280114,
"market_p": 0.493573264781491,
"divergence": 0.02743303356299509,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T01:00:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3649,
"contribution": 0.16609,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2367,
"contribution": -0.10771,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "MLB debut for the away starter",
"share": 0.1512,
"contribution": -0.06883,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_debut",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1258,
"contribution": -0.05727,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1213,
"contribution": 0.05521,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
}
]
}
]