Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5014774294392027,
"p_shipped": 0.5051192266301665,
"model_mu": 4.797458404734057,
"market_p": 0.5090439276485788,
"divergence": -0.007566498209376049,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire tendency history \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3552,
"contribution": -0.25203,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters strike out 17.5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3514,
"contribution": 0.24939,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~5 mph net",
"share": 0.1449,
"contribution": 0.10282,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0879,
"contribution": 0.06238,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0378,
"contribution": -0.02684,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_elo",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0228,
"contribution": -0.01618,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T01:00:25Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5589462485120757,
"p_shipped": 0.5027788982737986,
"model_mu": 5.553806107494649,
"market_p": 0.49612403100775193,
"divergence": 0.06282221750432382,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T01:00:25Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters strike out 17.5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.5938,
"contribution": 0.24939,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~3 mph net",
"share": 0.2117,
"contribution": 0.08893,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1137,
"contribution": 0.04775,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0639,
"contribution": -0.02684,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_elo",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "High-strikeout umpire zone",
"share": 0.0169,
"contribution": -0.00712,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5333286251561572,
"p_shipped": 0.4802301518472814,
"model_mu": 9.222444919169124,
"market_p": 0.47814910025706947,
"divergence": 0.05517952489908773,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over",
"share": 0.2492,
"contribution": 0.13539,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_tz2",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.211,
"contribution": 0.11466,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 17.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2104,
"contribution": 0.11431,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1675,
"contribution": -0.09101,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1618,
"contribution": -0.08793,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T01:00:25Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5472345027918245,
"p_shipped": 0.47441792794295273,
"model_mu": 10.234729298623499,
"market_p": 0.48071979434447304,
"divergence": 0.06651470844735147,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T01:00:25Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over",
"share": 0.257,
"contribution": 0.13539,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_tz2",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2177,
"contribution": 0.11466,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 17.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.217,
"contribution": 0.11431,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1728,
"contribution": -0.09101,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1355,
"contribution": -0.07137,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
}
]
}
]