Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels

Sun 9/20 · 8:38 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: projected

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 3.5

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 47%

TOTAL

no lean

model 52% under · market 52%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games31%

Wind blowing out, ~5 mph netagainst the under23%

The home team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 — below league average21%

Starting pitchers leans under — mostly the home team19%

The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate5%

Market: First-5-innings Under 3.5 at +104 (pinnacle, quoted 8:15 AM CDT) · model expects ~3.3 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · final grade comes about 70 minutes before first pitch.

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)September call-up lineupStarter recently back from injury

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. Umpire not yet confirmed. Lineups not posted at grade time. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 5 runs under its closing total — 3 runs against a total of 8. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4659441589820434,
  "p_shipped": 0.5189024518188083,
  "model_mu": 3.262687575451489,
  "market_p": 0.5257731958762887,
  "divergence": -0.05982903689424529,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3103,
    "contribution": -0.16436,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~5 mph net",
    "share": 0.2343,
    "contribution": 0.12408,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
    "share": 0.2125,
    "contribution": -0.11256,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1943,
    "contribution": -0.10289,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.0486,
    "contribution": -0.02574,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.47321878482573626,
  "p_shipped": 0.48453252380245065,
  "model_mu": 6.984832317875744,
  "market_p": 0.47557840616966585,
  "divergence": -0.0023596213439295854,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3104,
    "contribution": -0.20664,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.237,
    "contribution": 0.15783,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 27.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.2055,
    "contribution": -0.13681,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
    "share": 0.124,
    "contribution": -0.08256,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1231,
    "contribution": -0.08197,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]