Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels

Sat 9/19 · 8:38 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.0

B cards like this have won 49% under · market 47%

TOTAL

no lean

model 49% over · market 50%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 10-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter has thrown 468 pitches over 30 days23%

Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year — more called strikes20%

The home team allowing 3.5 runs a game, last 30 — below league average20%

Wind blowing out, ~4 mph netagainst the under20%

The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games18%

Market: First-5-innings Under 4.0 at +107 (pinnacle, quoted 7:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~4.1 runs · divergence 10 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

anchor First-5 Under 4.0 +107 → closed +106 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Heavily used bullpenBullpen arms used two straight daysExtra innings yesterdaySeptember call-up lineupLow-scoring umpireHigh-strikeout umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
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  "rung": "l1",
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  "p_shipped": 0.46863146818183093,
  "model_mu": 3.6903049779197503,
  "market_p": 0.49090909090909085,
  "divergence": -0.10749356818466121,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2326,
    "contribution": -0.15612,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 468 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.2146,
    "contribution": -0.14406,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~6 mph net",
    "share": 0.1847,
    "contribution": 0.12402,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1845,
    "contribution": -0.12383,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
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    "share": 0.1836,
    "contribution": -0.12328,
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    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
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  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T00:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 5,
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  "market_p": 0.5335051546391752,
  "divergence": -0.10253753810084848,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T00:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 468 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.2312,
    "contribution": -0.14406,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1988,
    "contribution": -0.12383,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 3.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
    "share": 0.1979,
    "contribution": -0.12328,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~4 mph net",
    "share": 0.1968,
    "contribution": 0.12259,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1753,
    "contribution": -0.10923,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 5,
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  "divergence": 0.032923721282355434,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.2566,
    "contribution": 0.18049,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2532,
    "contribution": -0.17808,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2244,
    "contribution": 0.15783,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.1654,
    "contribution": -0.11638,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1004,
    "contribution": -0.07066,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T00:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T00:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.2685,
    "contribution": 0.18049,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2348,
    "contribution": 0.15783,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2184,
    "contribution": -0.14677,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.1732,
    "contribution": -0.11638,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1051,
    "contribution": -0.07066,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]