Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.38777083082599834,
"p_shipped": 0.43830639235992186,
"model_mu": 3.473538545265134,
"market_p": 0.47409326424870474,
"divergence": -0.0863224334227064,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 26.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.315,
"contribution": -0.2459,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1976,
"contribution": -0.15421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.165,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~6 mph net",
"share": 0.1619,
"contribution": 0.12636,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1385,
"contribution": -0.10811,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0221,
"contribution": -0.01722,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-18T00:30:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4467480409839753,
"p_shipped": 0.5095781797330439,
"model_mu": 4.1305146427395405,
"market_p": 0.5231958762886597,
"divergence": -0.07644783530468441,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T00:30:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 26.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3413,
"contribution": -0.2459,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2397,
"contribution": -0.17267,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~6 mph net",
"share": 0.1818,
"contribution": 0.13098,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1501,
"contribution": -0.10811,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.0871,
"contribution": 0.06274,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4314188180024962,
"p_shipped": 0.49159586555920065,
"model_mu": 7.312772368103716,
"market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
"divergence": -0.05953725434892493,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 10.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.3264,
"contribution": -0.25123,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1974,
"contribution": 0.1519,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1935,
"contribution": -0.14891,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.135,
"contribution": -0.10388,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0771,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0706,
"contribution": 0.05435,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"a_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-18T00:30:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4676747934439723,
"p_shipped": 0.5033126727988788,
"model_mu": 7.98531375510895,
"market_p": 0.5218508997429305,
"divergence": -0.05417610629895825,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T00:30:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 10.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.3386,
"contribution": -0.25123,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2047,
"contribution": 0.1519,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2038,
"contribution": -0.15121,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.14,
"contribution": -0.10388,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How often this umpire's calls match the strike zone",
"share": 0.1129,
"contribution": 0.08376,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_asof",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
}
]
}
]