Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.490156244650548,
"p_shipped": 0.47214427050753355,
"model_mu": 3.5567364403954755,
"market_p": 0.4575835475578406,
"divergence": 0.03257269709270744,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters strike out 29.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3786,
"contribution": -0.21978,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~6 mph net",
"share": 0.2543,
"contribution": 0.14763,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1889,
"contribution": -0.10965,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire tendency history \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1198,
"contribution": -0.06956,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.0543,
"contribution": 0.03154,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0039,
"contribution": -0.00227,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T00:30:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5192500687836467,
"p_shipped": 0.5539895859169328,
"model_mu": 3.901594529537031,
"market_p": 0.5309278350515463,
"divergence": -0.011677766267899625,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 3.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T00:30:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters strike out 29.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.317,
"contribution": -0.21978,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2302,
"contribution": -0.15959,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~7 mph net",
"share": 0.2055,
"contribution": 0.14249,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1016,
"contribution": 0.07045,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire tendency history \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1003,
"contribution": -0.06956,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.0455,
"contribution": 0.03154,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.45262690170928255,
"p_shipped": 0.48831691207905137,
"model_mu": 6.285355180504395,
"market_p": 0.47557840616966585,
"divergence": -0.0229515044603833,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.4492,
"contribution": -0.20623,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.185,
"contribution": -0.08494,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.169,
"contribution": 0.07757,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1305,
"contribution": -0.0599,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
"share": 0.0663,
"contribution": 0.03044,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_k_pct30",
"a_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T00:30:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.44354781323512565,
"p_shipped": 0.505589079172545,
"model_mu": 6.566102355188153,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": -0.07316169833299774,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 6.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T00:30:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.4739,
"contribution": -0.22779,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1767,
"contribution": -0.08494,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1614,
"contribution": 0.07757,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1246,
"contribution": -0.0599,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
"share": 0.0633,
"contribution": 0.03044,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_k_pct30",
"a_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
}
]