New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels

Wed 9/2 · 8:38 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.0

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 47%

TOTAL

no lean

model 47% over · market 47%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter has thrown 461 pitches over 30 daysagainst the over25%

The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 gamesagainst the over25%

Wind blowing out, ~6 mph net24%

Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most — fewer called strikes17%

Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team9%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at +107 (pinnacle, quoted 7:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~4.6 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

anchor First-5 Over 4.0 +107 → closed +106 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Heavily used bullpen

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5271813563489488,
  "p_shipped": 0.4778117185399129,
  "model_mu": 3.9462196328077064,
  "market_p": 0.4793814432989691,
  "divergence": 0.047799913049979714,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 461 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.255,
    "contribution": -0.14726,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_tto_decay"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~7 mph net",
    "share": 0.2491,
    "contribution": 0.14388,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2229,
    "contribution": -0.12873,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1765,
    "contribution": 0.10193,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0966,
    "contribution": 0.0558,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T00:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.522972161371225,
  "p_shipped": 0.46563470485975406,
  "model_mu": 4.577774883609402,
  "market_p": 0.4678663239074551,
  "divergence": 0.05510583746376996,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T00:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 461 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.2474,
    "contribution": -0.14726,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_tto_decay"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2453,
    "contribution": -0.14597,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~6 mph net",
    "share": 0.2423,
    "contribution": 0.14424,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1712,
    "contribution": 0.10193,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0937,
    "contribution": 0.0558,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.4814148524827536,
  "p_shipped": 0.4920097718383507,
  "model_mu": 6.978829804186539,
  "market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
  "divergence": -0.009587718211333807,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.4422,
    "contribution": -0.22144,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.2031,
    "contribution": 0.10171,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.1229,
    "contribution": -0.06154,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1202,
    "contribution": -0.06019,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.1115,
    "contribution": 0.05584,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_k_pct30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T00:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.48209730817942187,
  "p_shipped": 0.4731520161883266,
  "model_mu": 7.864804023349685,
  "market_p": 0.4717948717948718,
  "divergence": 0.010302436384550084,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T00:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.4411,
    "contribution": -0.22045,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.2035,
    "contribution": 0.10171,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.1232,
    "contribution": -0.06154,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1204,
    "contribution": -0.06019,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.1117,
    "contribution": 0.05584,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_k_pct30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]