SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
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first pitch 1:10 PM CDT

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals

Mon 9/7 · 1:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
TOTAL · OVER 9.0 RUNS
A
A cards like this have won 54% over · market 52% · stake 1u
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 51% over · market 50%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 17-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
90°F — heat carries the ball30%
Walk-prone umpire zone28%
One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.19%
Schedule spot leans over — mostly the home team12%
Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team11%
Market: Over 9.0 runs at -114 (pinnacle, quoted 12:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~11.5 runs · divergence 17 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.4% of 927 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.5 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.
Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.
anchor Over 9.0 runs -114 → closed -116 · our way
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Bullpen arms used two straight days
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.48813603247867166,
  "p_shipped": 0.4815747767648142,
  "model_mu": 5.316896796558565,
  "market_p": 0.49081364829396334,
  "divergence": -0.0026776158152916896,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "mybookieag",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "91\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3922,
    "contribution": 0.16205,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.3117,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1536,
    "contribution": 0.06347,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0525,
    "contribution": -0.02171,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0463,
    "contribution": 0.01913,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 468 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.0437,
    "contribution": -0.01807,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "a_sp_days_rest_miss"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-07T17:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.523705849982467,
  "p_shipped": 0.5072546677144926,
  "model_mu": 5.736974418292101,
  "market_p": 0.4987080103359174,
  "divergence": 0.02499783964654967,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T17:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3047,
    "contribution": 0.15472,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2659,
    "contribution": 0.13499,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter back from a 30+ day MLB gap \u2014 established arm",
    "share": 0.2617,
    "contribution": -0.13285,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_return_vet",
     "a_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.125,
    "contribution": 0.06347,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0428,
    "contribution": -0.02171,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6033762381605743,
  "p_shipped": 0.4826282233980248,
  "model_mu": 10.771046974541434,
  "market_p": 0.47582697201017815,
  "divergence": 0.12754926615039613,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 9.5,
  "anchor_book": "onexbet",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "91\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3681,
    "contribution": 0.23245,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1438,
    "contribution": 0.09082,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.135,
    "contribution": 0.08526,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_pitch_miss",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1256,
    "contribution": 0.07929,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.094,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Both teams' bullpens worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.0782,
    "contribution": 0.04938,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_k_pct30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0552,
    "contribution": 0.03486,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_platoon_miss",
     "h_platoon_miss"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-07T17:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6849301987036434,
  "p_shipped": 0.5229241169045299,
  "model_mu": 11.522881946857675,
  "market_p": 0.5154639175257731,
  "divergence": 0.16946628117787021,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T17:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3041,
    "contribution": 0.22682,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.2821,
    "contribution": 0.21047,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
    "share": 0.1858,
    "contribution": 0.1386,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_opener",
     "a_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1217,
    "contribution": 0.09082,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1063,
    "contribution": 0.07929,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]