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first pitch 6:40 PM CDT
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals

Wed 9/9 · 6:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 5.0
C
C cards like this have won 51% over · market 48%
TOTAL
no lean
model 50% over · market 52%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 8-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The away starter strikes out 15.4% of batters, adjusted — a lower strikeout rate than average34%
Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year — fewer called strikes21%
Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team18%
Park & environment leans over17%
Backup catcher startingagainst the over9%
Market: First-5-innings Over 5.0 at +102 (pinnacle, quoted 5:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.4 runs · divergence 8 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.
anchor First-5 Over 5.0 +102 → closed +101 · our way
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Heavily used bullpenExtra innings yesterdayCatcher rest spotGetaway day (day game, then travel)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5608302099496175,
  "p_shipped": 0.48694772515545376,
  "model_mu": 4.627880367688173,
  "market_p": 0.4792746113989638,
  "divergence": 0.0815555985506537,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 15.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.3613,
    "contribution": 0.15315,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_return_vet",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2275,
    "contribution": 0.09645,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1918,
    "contribution": 0.0813,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1702,
    "contribution": 0.07216,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0492,
    "contribution": -0.02085,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
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  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T22:30:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
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  "model_mu": 5.40632581009354,
  "market_p": 0.4780361757105944,
  "divergence": 0.0831430056348762,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T22:30:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 15.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.339,
    "contribution": 0.15315,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_return_vet",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2135,
    "contribution": 0.09645,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.18,
    "contribution": 0.0813,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.174,
    "contribution": 0.07859,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.0935,
    "contribution": -0.04224,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
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  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5657185017477079,
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  "market_p": 0.5231958762886597,
  "divergence": 0.04252262545904817,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter exits early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
    "share": 0.3175,
    "contribution": 0.16695,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bf_per_start",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.2192,
    "contribution": 0.11527,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
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    "share": 0.2006,
    "contribution": 0.10546,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1689,
    "contribution": -0.0888,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 84\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.0937,
    "contribution": 0.04928,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
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  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5581675143699287,
  "p_shipped": 0.49704442617522726,
  "model_mu": 9.825936203557832,
  "market_p": 0.5192802056555269,
  "divergence": 0.038887308714401825,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T22:30:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter exits early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
    "share": 0.3238,
    "contribution": 0.16695,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bf_per_start",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.2235,
    "contribution": 0.11527,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2045,
    "contribution": 0.10546,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
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    "contribution": -0.0888,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.0759,
    "contribution": 0.03915,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]