Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5069506018564099,
"p_shipped": 0.47150337567644307,
"model_mu": 5.228619335237216,
"market_p": 0.48195876288659806,
"divergence": 0.024991838969811886,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "97\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.4276,
"contribution": 0.32846,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1677,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1592,
"contribution": 0.12232,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1238,
"contribution": -0.09507,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.075,
"contribution": 0.05764,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under",
"share": 0.0467,
"contribution": -0.03585,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_framing_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T23:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.521972911871872,
"p_shipped": 0.4925203983361748,
"model_mu": 6.161875344218049,
"market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
"divergence": 0.038768777504946894,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T23:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "96\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.4876,
"contribution": 0.30062,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1984,
"contribution": 0.12232,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.129,
"contribution": -0.07955,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.0935,
"contribution": 0.05764,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.0914,
"contribution": -0.05633,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5622604040082207,
"p_shipped": 0.49108348116617717,
"model_mu": 10.617882257830079,
"market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
"divergence": 0.07382852740153689,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 10.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "97\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.3077,
"contribution": 0.20211,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter exits early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
"share": 0.2722,
"contribution": 0.17882,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_rest_z"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1436,
"contribution": 0.09435,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1043,
"contribution": -0.0685,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0904,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0818,
"contribution": 0.05373,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"a_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T23:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5730250413568427,
"p_shipped": 0.49140305061531714,
"model_mu": 11.913898400341802,
"market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
"divergence": 0.08459316475015888,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 10.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T23:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "96\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.33,
"contribution": 0.18641,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter exits early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
"share": 0.3166,
"contribution": 0.17882,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_rest_z"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.167,
"contribution": 0.09435,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0951,
"contribution": 0.05373,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"a_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0912,
"contribution": -0.05153,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
}
]
}
]