Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals

Thu 9/3 · 6:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 52%

TOTAL

no lean

model 50% under · market 47%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 8-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

96°F — heat carries the ball57%

Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most — fewer called strikes22%

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 gamesagainst the over8%

The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 — below league average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the over8%

The home starter up 1.6 mph in his last startagainst the over6%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at -115 (pinnacle, quoted 5:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.7 runs · divergence 8 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade C. · the morning pass leaned B; this pass stands down.

anchor First-5 Over 4.5 -115 → closed -112 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Getaway day (day game, then travel)Deep into a road trip (game 7+)Catcher rest spotHeavy recent starter workloadHot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
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  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.575306097049054,
  "p_shipped": 0.49007990030933646,
  "model_mu": 5.199057335960558,
  "market_p": 0.4742268041237113,
  "divergence": 0.10107929292534268,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "97\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.5578,
    "contribution": 0.33654,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2003,
    "contribution": 0.12082,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1232,
    "contribution": -0.07435,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.0689,
    "contribution": 0.04155,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 1.6 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.0498,
    "contribution": -0.03006,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-03T22:30:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 2,
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  "market_p": 0.518041237113402,
  "divergence": 0.08158510730355173,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T22:30:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "96\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.5655,
    "contribution": 0.30787,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2219,
    "contribution": 0.12082,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.081,
    "contribution": -0.04409,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.0763,
    "contribution": 0.04155,
    "kind": "driver",
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     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 1.6 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.0552,
    "contribution": -0.03006,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 2,
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  "market_p": 0.5115681233933163,
  "divergence": -0.026039880070391985,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "97\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2826,
    "contribution": 0.20908,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2539,
    "contribution": -0.18786,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.189,
    "contribution": -0.1398,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1457,
    "contribution": 0.10778,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.1289,
    "contribution": 0.09537,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-03T22:30:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
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  "divergence": -0.0411143895601262,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T22:30:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "96\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.275,
    "contribution": 0.19283,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2679,
    "contribution": -0.18786,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1673,
    "contribution": -0.11731,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.136,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]