Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.46815085364593023,
"p_shipped": 0.47215560196077216,
"model_mu": 3.949628159476773,
"market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
"divergence": -0.017637260049160164,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 478 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2962,
"contribution": -0.08559,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2628,
"contribution": -0.07595,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"wx_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1674,
"contribution": 0.04837,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1539,
"contribution": 0.04447,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.1198,
"contribution": -0.03462,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T17:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4672376704117732,
"p_shipped": 0.4781641846657871,
"model_mu": 4.955419072454521,
"market_p": 0.4883720930232558,
"divergence": -0.021134422611482573,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T17:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 478 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.3286,
"contribution": -0.08559,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2322,
"contribution": -0.06047,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1857,
"contribution": 0.04837,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.1329,
"contribution": -0.03462,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1206,
"contribution": 0.0314,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4243950077255215,
"p_shipped": 0.4962943603903496,
"model_mu": 7.024452971942063,
"market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
"divergence": -0.0820317274929876,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked extra innings yesterday",
"share": 0.3415,
"contribution": -0.14835,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_yday_extras",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
"share": 0.2431,
"contribution": -0.1056,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2175,
"contribution": -0.09448,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1054,
"contribution": 0.04581,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.0926,
"contribution": -0.04022,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T17:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.42902640512058493,
"p_shipped": 0.4885502219730346,
"model_mu": 8.44400544635091,
"market_p": 0.502577319587629,
"divergence": -0.07355091446704404,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T17:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked extra innings yesterday",
"share": 0.3018,
"contribution": -0.14835,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_yday_extras",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
"share": 0.2149,
"contribution": -0.1056,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1922,
"contribution": -0.09448,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1914,
"contribution": 0.09406,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.0997,
"contribution": -0.04898,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
}
]
}
]