Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5256289606945309,
"p_shipped": 0.47835579818567747,
"model_mu": 3.9765598821042953,
"market_p": 0.49612403100775193,
"divergence": 0.02950492968677898,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.308,
"contribution": 0.14767,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_k_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1734,
"contribution": 0.08314,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1473,
"contribution": -0.07062,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"wx_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1411,
"contribution": 0.06765,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 475 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1372,
"contribution": -0.06579,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.093,
"contribution": -0.04459,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T17:00:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5031198533295602,
"p_shipped": 0.4851284641991825,
"model_mu": 5.035856375054204,
"market_p": 0.5038759689922481,
"divergence": -0.0007561156626878507,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T17:00:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.406,
"contribution": 0.14767,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_k_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 475 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1809,
"contribution": -0.06579,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.153,
"contribution": -0.05566,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1374,
"contribution": 0.04999,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1226,
"contribution": -0.04459,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.41574901435485073,
"p_shipped": 0.4785913687178962,
"model_mu": 6.933345639533858,
"market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
"divergence": -0.07268286225183312,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.4511,
"contribution": -0.26899,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1934,
"contribution": 0.11536,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 11.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1698,
"contribution": -0.10123,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1001,
"contribution": -0.05971,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0856,
"contribution": 0.05106,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T17:00:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.41822423213360793,
"p_shipped": 0.4847145737325541,
"model_mu": 8.206469151866234,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.08177576786639207,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T17:00:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.4067,
"contribution": -0.26899,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1744,
"contribution": 0.11536,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 11.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1531,
"contribution": -0.10123,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1425,
"contribution": 0.09427,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
"share": 0.1232,
"contribution": -0.08151,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
}
]