Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros

Sat 9/5 · 6:15 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · OVER 9.0 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% over · market 48% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 53%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Schedule spot leans over — mostly the home team33%

How often this umpire's calls match the strike zone23%

Starting pitchers leans over — mostly the away team21%

Defense leans over — mostly the away team12%

Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team11%

Market: Over 9.0 runs at +103 (pinnacle, quoted 5:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~10.5 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade C. · the morning pass leaned B; this pass stands down.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade B. · new at this pass — the morning pass had no lean.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.5 -119 → closed -119 · unchanged

TOTALanchor Over 9.0 runs +103 → closed +104 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 5 runs under its closing total — 4 runs against a total of 9. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded · this card grades the OVER — the rule points the other way

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6058619012339013,
  "p_shipped": 0.4979753208032632,
  "model_mu": 4.407973051130294,
  "market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
  "divergence": 0.10456991156981854,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 16.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.6282,
    "contribution": 0.28616,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_inn1_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1259,
    "contribution": 0.05736,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1038,
    "contribution": 0.04729,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.0995,
    "contribution": 0.04533,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
    "share": 0.0425,
    "contribution": 0.01935,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "wx_miss",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6009786475457509,
  "p_shipped": 0.5306914035543947,
  "model_mu": 5.52564434341275,
  "market_p": 0.5257731958762887,
  "divergence": 0.07520545166946224,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 16.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.6071,
    "contribution": 0.28616,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_inn1_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1217,
    "contribution": 0.05736,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1003,
    "contribution": 0.04729,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.0962,
    "contribution": 0.04533,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team lacks the lefty-righty edge in the lineup",
    "share": 0.0748,
    "contribution": -0.03525,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_platoon_share",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5554300675003577,
  "p_shipped": 0.49157941230254054,
  "model_mu": 8.450406969150356,
  "market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
  "divergence": 0.0644274968062703,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2766,
    "contribution": 0.1188,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "How often this umpire's calls match the strike zone",
    "share": 0.1945,
    "contribution": 0.08353,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1759,
    "contribution": 0.07553,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1572,
    "contribution": -0.06752,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "wind_miss",
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1032,
    "contribution": 0.04433,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0926,
    "contribution": 0.03975,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5654729355507314,
  "p_shipped": 0.48337230022804095,
  "model_mu": 10.494609069626236,
  "market_p": 0.47814910025706947,
  "divergence": 0.08732383529366194,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.3282,
    "contribution": 0.1188,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "How often this umpire's calls match the strike zone",
    "share": 0.2308,
    "contribution": 0.08353,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2087,
    "contribution": 0.07553,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1225,
    "contribution": 0.04433,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1098,
    "contribution": 0.03975,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]