Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48843645205242403,
"p_shipped": 0.4509228993777801,
"model_mu": 4.37954829264675,
"market_p": 0.4716494845360826,
"divergence": 0.016786967516341456,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3291,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters strike out 16.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2939,
"contribution": 0.11503,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1416,
"contribution": 0.05542,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1136,
"contribution": 0.04447,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0722,
"contribution": -0.02824,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0495,
"contribution": 0.01939,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"alt_kft"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T23:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.49803153992137505,
"p_shipped": 0.4687007987559137,
"model_mu": 5.592769293148042,
"market_p": 0.4728682170542636,
"divergence": 0.02516332286711148,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T23:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters strike out 16.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3296,
"contribution": 0.11503,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.248,
"contribution": -0.08655,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1588,
"contribution": 0.05542,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1363,
"contribution": -0.04756,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1274,
"contribution": 0.04447,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5191854550747164,
"p_shipped": 0.475501283292004,
"model_mu": 8.608197774981877,
"market_p": 0.4769230769230769,
"divergence": 0.04226237815163947,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.4264,
"contribution": 0.25952,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_tz2",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
"share": 0.1191,
"contribution": -0.0725,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1115,
"contribution": -0.06787,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"wind_miss",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0975,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0974,
"contribution": -0.05928,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0751,
"contribution": 0.04573,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0728,
"contribution": 0.04433,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T23:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5472116322080348,
"p_shipped": 0.481698282227354,
"model_mu": 10.152675458208861,
"market_p": 0.47814910025706947,
"divergence": 0.06906253195096534,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T23:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.5348,
"contribution": 0.25952,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_tz2",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
"share": 0.1494,
"contribution": -0.0725,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1303,
"contribution": -0.06322,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0942,
"contribution": 0.04573,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0913,
"contribution": 0.04433,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
}
]