Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5695262688504896,
"p_shipped": 0.498179320523103,
"model_mu": 4.012666716892934,
"market_p": 0.5038961038961038,
"divergence": 0.06563016495438578,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.3918,
"contribution": 0.18098,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2064,
"contribution": 0.09534,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1753,
"contribution": 0.08097,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1069,
"contribution": -0.04937,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0741,
"contribution": -0.03424,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_gap_med",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0456,
"contribution": 0.02108,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"alt_kft"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T23:00:25Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5405106121415011,
"p_shipped": 0.4674254954094485,
"model_mu": 5.346810548859877,
"market_p": 0.4716494845360826,
"divergence": 0.06886112760541852,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T23:00:25Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.4083,
"contribution": 0.18098,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1827,
"contribution": 0.08097,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1391,
"contribution": 0.06164,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_platoon_share",
"a_off_bb30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1114,
"contribution": -0.04937,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.0813,
"contribution": 0.03604,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0772,
"contribution": -0.03424,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_gap_med",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.40840633034513313,
"p_shipped": 0.49432329474333303,
"model_mu": 6.548269221403007,
"market_p": 0.5038759689922481,
"divergence": -0.09546963864711494,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "16\u201330 day gap between starts for the home starter",
"share": 0.4198,
"contribution": -0.24536,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_gap_med",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1543,
"contribution": -0.09019,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1184,
"contribution": -0.0692,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"wind_miss",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1171,
"contribution": 0.06845,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.105,
"contribution": -0.06136,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.0854,
"contribution": 0.04992,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T23:00:25Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.42551903250856793,
"p_shipped": 0.4928710278725212,
"model_mu": 7.7867526802675595,
"market_p": 0.5089974293059126,
"divergence": -0.0834783967973447,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T23:00:25Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "16\u201330 day gap between starts for the home starter",
"share": 0.4867,
"contribution": -0.24536,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_gap_med",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1789,
"contribution": -0.09019,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1217,
"contribution": -0.06136,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1137,
"contribution": 0.05734,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.099,
"contribution": 0.04992,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
}
]
}
]