Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5081177836795883,
"p_shipped": 0.5127781186144665,
"model_mu": 4.5653886455948145,
"market_p": 0.5167958656330749,
"divergence": -0.008678081953486627,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 16.5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.4458,
"contribution": 0.21786,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.271,
"contribution": -0.13243,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1272,
"contribution": -0.06216,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.1245,
"contribution": 0.06083,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0316,
"contribution": -0.01546,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T16:00:27Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4996482517455269,
"p_shipped": 0.5155054611264357,
"model_mu": 5.359762002938014,
"market_p": 0.5193798449612403,
"divergence": -0.01973159321571344,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T16:00:27Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 16.5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.4211,
"contribution": 0.21786,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2597,
"contribution": -0.13434,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1201,
"contribution": -0.06216,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.1176,
"contribution": 0.06083,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.0815,
"contribution": -0.04218,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5527722658774156,
"p_shipped": 0.5058995141906227,
"model_mu": 8.277269769787925,
"market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
"divergence": 0.04634553065890645,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.3048,
"contribution": -0.2089,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1922,
"contribution": 0.1317,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.1863,
"contribution": 0.12766,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.1641,
"contribution": 0.11247,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1526,
"contribution": -0.10458,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"a_off_k30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T16:00:27Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5484213678962294,
"p_shipped": 0.5058995141906227,
"model_mu": 9.298499044283165,
"market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
"divergence": 0.0419946326777203,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T16:00:27Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.3059,
"contribution": -0.2089,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1969,
"contribution": 0.13445,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.187,
"contribution": 0.12766,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.1647,
"contribution": 0.11247,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1455,
"contribution": 0.09934,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
}
]
}
]