Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.38719356761532087,
"p_shipped": 0.4426173950715684,
"model_mu": 3.7496444497885846,
"market_p": 0.4716494845360826,
"divergence": -0.08445591692076171,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 476 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2305,
"contribution": -0.1401,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.22,
"contribution": -0.13374,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2119,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team playing like a .331 club right now",
"share": 0.1938,
"contribution": -0.1178,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0996,
"contribution": 0.06053,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0443,
"contribution": 0.02695,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T21:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.37266371226981826,
"p_shipped": 0.45119424699575156,
"model_mu": 4.426123338965196,
"market_p": 0.4742268041237113,
"divergence": -0.10156309185389306,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T21:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 476 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2604,
"contribution": -0.1401,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2505,
"contribution": -0.13477,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team playing like a .331 club right now",
"share": 0.219,
"contribution": -0.1178,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1662,
"contribution": -0.08944,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1039,
"contribution": -0.05591,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.43033573876060977,
"p_shipped": 0.4905074054311327,
"model_mu": 6.863999225708067,
"market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
"divergence": -0.06708694165176143,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2885,
"contribution": -0.17225,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under",
"share": 0.2037,
"contribution": -0.1216,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1653,
"contribution": -0.09872,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "3 recent call-ups for the home team",
"share": 0.1453,
"contribution": 0.08675,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0994,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
"share": 0.0977,
"contribution": 0.05834,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T21:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.42388416100629805,
"p_shipped": 0.4913017387074791,
"model_mu": 7.6043397869127665,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.07611583899370195,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T21:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3099,
"contribution": -0.16409,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under",
"share": 0.2296,
"contribution": -0.1216,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1864,
"contribution": -0.09872,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "3 recent call-ups for the home team",
"share": 0.1638,
"contribution": 0.08675,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
"share": 0.1102,
"contribution": 0.05834,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
}
]
}
]