Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers

Tue 9/8 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.5

B cards like this have won 49% under · market 50%

TOTAL

no lean

model 49% under · market 49%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 11-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter likely goes only an inning or two — relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under31%

The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games26%

Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year — more called strikes20%

Park & environment leans overagainst the under12%

The away team allowing 5 runs a game, last 30 — above league average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under11%

Market: First-5-innings Under 4.5 at -106 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~4.2 runs · divergence 11 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

anchor First-5 Under 4.5 -106 → closed -106 · unchanged

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Bullpen arms used two straight daysSeptember call-up lineup

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.39098067162115513,
  "p_shipped": 0.4683045636774837,
  "model_mu": 3.7013209976094354,
  "market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
  "divergence": -0.09222346274576998,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2963,
    "contribution": -0.15753,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2813,
    "contribution": -0.14956,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1967,
    "contribution": -0.10459,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1202,
    "contribution": 0.06391,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.1054,
    "contribution": -0.05602,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_rs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.39036382711306195,
  "p_shipped": 0.4859237303231812,
  "model_mu": 4.18865793861571,
  "market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
  "divergence": -0.11092816255102078,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.3059,
    "contribution": -0.15753,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2637,
    "contribution": -0.13578,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.2031,
    "contribution": -0.10459,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1184,
    "contribution": 0.06097,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.1088,
    "contribution": -0.05602,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_rs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5221806955017089,
  "p_shipped": 0.5189013395755702,
  "model_mu": 7.540382610054947,
  "market_p": 0.5154639175257731,
  "divergence": 0.006716777975935728,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3156,
    "contribution": -0.13956,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss",
     "a_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.2886,
    "contribution": 0.12766,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1595,
    "contribution": 0.07054,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.1231,
    "contribution": -0.05446,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 80\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.1132,
    "contribution": 0.05005,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5036088580377829,
  "p_shipped": 0.5076699541008834,
  "model_mu": 8.533069405574173,
  "market_p": 0.5089974293059126,
  "divergence": -0.005388571268129749,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.2751,
    "contribution": 0.12766,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2712,
    "contribution": -0.12588,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_k30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1844,
    "contribution": -0.08558,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.152,
    "contribution": 0.07054,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.1173,
    "contribution": -0.05446,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]