Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.3976331475998229,
"p_shipped": 0.46918426419898035,
"model_mu": 4.245825293519532,
"market_p": 0.48293963254593175,
"divergence": -0.08530648494610887,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "mybookieag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3851,
"contribution": -0.14985,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3309,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1388,
"contribution": -0.05402,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter up 1.3 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.1045,
"contribution": -0.04065,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_days_rest_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.034,
"contribution": -0.01323,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0067,
"contribution": -0.00262,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T18:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4290520045896419,
"p_shipped": 0.5365882956162613,
"model_mu": 3.7950521406010327,
"market_p": 0.5271317829457364,
"divergence": -0.0980797783560945,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T18:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter back from a 30+ day MLB gap \u2014 established arm",
"share": 0.4201,
"contribution": -0.23565,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_return_vet",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2721,
"contribution": -0.15262,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.188,
"contribution": 0.10546,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.0963,
"contribution": -0.05402,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0236,
"contribution": -0.01323,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5192087937063459,
"p_shipped": 0.49295924840416905,
"model_mu": 9.034404061879089,
"market_p": 0.4809160305343511,
"divergence": 0.03829276317199476,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "onexbet",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2455,
"contribution": -0.14517,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"a_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2387,
"contribution": 0.14117,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.2159,
"contribution": 0.12766,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1004,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1,
"contribution": -0.05911,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0996,
"contribution": 0.05888,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T18:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5606762110904933,
"p_shipped": 0.5096838034102117,
"model_mu": 8.706898700949559,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": 0.04396669952236987,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T18:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.2302,
"contribution": 0.14265,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2264,
"contribution": -0.1403,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_k30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2259,
"contribution": 0.13995,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.206,
"contribution": 0.12766,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
"share": 0.1115,
"contribution": -0.06911,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
}
]
}
]