Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies

Sun 9/20 · 7:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 11.0 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% under · market 52% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 6.0

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 50%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Bullpen leans under — mostly the home team49%

The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games21%

Defense leans under — mostly the away team14%

The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 daysagainst the under8%

Both teams allowing more runs than league average, last 30 gamesagainst the under8%

Market: Under 11.0 runs at -116 (pinnacle, quoted 6:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~9.9 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade C. · the morning pass leaned B; this pass stands down.

TOTALFrozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade B. · both passes leaned this way.

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Deep into a road trip (game 7+)Bullpen arms used two straight daysSeptember call-up lineupHigh-scoring umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.43769075679588154,
  "p_shipped": 0.5265498598593815,
  "model_mu": 4.979135089498085,
  "market_p": 0.5430809399477807,
  "divergence": -0.10539018315189919,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 5.5,
  "anchor_book": "williamhill_us",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.3011,
    "contribution": 0.13446,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.2232,
    "contribution": -0.09964,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1997,
    "contribution": -0.08918,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
    "share": 0.1611,
    "contribution": 0.07192,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1149,
    "contribution": -0.05131,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T23:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.432396419423095,
  "p_shipped": 0.47694124133786053,
  "model_mu": 6.372715924162332,
  "market_p": 0.49612403100775193,
  "divergence": -0.06372761158465695,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 6.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T23:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.4036,
    "contribution": 0.21306,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1888,
    "contribution": -0.09964,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1742,
    "contribution": -0.09194,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
    "share": 0.1362,
    "contribution": 0.07192,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0972,
    "contribution": -0.05131,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.3778355148479754,
  "p_shipped": 0.5067898878905509,
  "model_mu": 8.20377922861741,
  "market_p": 0.5380710659898477,
  "divergence": -0.16023555114187227,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 10.5,
  "anchor_book": "onexbet",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.4606,
    "contribution": -0.21786,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.207,
    "contribution": -0.09791,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1292,
    "contribution": -0.06112,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
    "share": 0.1246,
    "contribution": -0.05895,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
    "share": 0.0786,
    "contribution": 0.03719,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_prev_pitches",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T23:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.38736779722182635,
  "p_shipped": 0.46424464964886636,
  "model_mu": 9.90311260875484,
  "market_p": 0.47814910025706947,
  "divergence": -0.09078130303524312,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 11.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T23:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.4898,
    "contribution": -0.21786,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2092,
    "contribution": -0.09303,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1374,
    "contribution": -0.06112,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
    "share": 0.0836,
    "contribution": 0.03719,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_prev_pitches",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Both teams allowing more runs than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.08,
    "contribution": 0.03557,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]