Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5013846351790435,
"p_shipped": 0.4660509778581715,
"model_mu": 5.484496114012969,
"market_p": 0.4895287958115184,
"divergence": 0.0118558393675251,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 6.0,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.4839,
"contribution": 0.32837,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1898,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1321,
"contribution": 0.08962,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 15.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1226,
"contribution": 0.0832,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0529,
"contribution": -0.03592,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Both teams throw out base stealers",
"share": 0.0187,
"contribution": -0.01266,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T23:30:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5463906718910533,
"p_shipped": 0.48712546406122414,
"model_mu": 6.7184059594066605,
"market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
"divergence": 0.055434599539632146,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 6.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T23:30:18Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.4691,
"contribution": 0.30392,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.1846,
"contribution": 0.11963,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1383,
"contribution": 0.08962,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 15.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1284,
"contribution": 0.0832,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.0796,
"contribution": -0.05157,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4591259796590836,
"p_shipped": 0.4974966391116347,
"model_mu": 10.192085572156468,
"market_p": 0.4921465968586388,
"divergence": -0.033020617199555236,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 11.0,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3421,
"contribution": -0.28745,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.3096,
"contribution": 0.26012,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.129,
"contribution": 0.10836,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
"share": 0.1275,
"contribution": -0.10709,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"h_framing_miss",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0918,
"contribution": -0.07713,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T23:30:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.47698246978167913,
"p_shipped": 0.5026662468714077,
"model_mu": 11.43478213102595,
"market_p": 0.5115681233933163,
"divergence": -0.034585653611637124,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 11.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T23:30:18Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3412,
"contribution": -0.28745,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.3088,
"contribution": 0.26012,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
"share": 0.1316,
"contribution": -0.11088,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.1286,
"contribution": 0.10836,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0897,
"contribution": -0.07554,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
}
]
}
]