SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
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first pitch 2:10 PM CDT

St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies

Sun 9/6 · 2:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
TOTAL · UNDER 11.0 RUNS
C
C cards like this have won 52% under · market 48%
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 49% over · market 49%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 7-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team — day game, then travel39%
Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoringagainst the under31%
The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games11%
Strike-throwing umpire zone11%
Defense leans over — mostly the away teamagainst the under8%
Market: Under 11.0 runs at +102 (pinnacle, quoted 1:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~11.2 runs · divergence 7 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.
anchor Under 11.0 runs +102 → closed -102 · our way
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Day game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5058991769663863,
  "p_shipped": 0.5211197552909025,
  "model_mu": 5.600750208426505,
  "market_p": 0.5231958762886597,
  "divergence": -0.0172966993222734,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 5.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.4136,
    "contribution": 0.25212,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "temp_out",
     "day_game"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1994,
    "contribution": 0.12154,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_inn1_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1245,
    "contribution": -0.07592,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss",
     "h_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1181,
    "contribution": -0.07201,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0876,
    "contribution": 0.0534,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0568,
    "contribution": -0.03462,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T18:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.491244906841324,
  "p_shipped": 0.48711904335973893,
  "model_mu": 7.0170352906269144,
  "market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
  "divergence": 0.0002888344899028561,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 6.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T18:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.5014,
    "contribution": 0.25843,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "temp_out",
     "day_game"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2358,
    "contribution": 0.12154,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_inn1_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1397,
    "contribution": -0.07201,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0563,
    "contribution": -0.02902,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.0375,
    "contribution": 0.01935,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0292,
    "contribution": -0.01504,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.45059782657584707,
  "p_shipped": 0.502654167475207,
  "model_mu": 9.957091956260523,
  "market_p": 0.5089974293059126,
  "divergence": -0.05839960273006556,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 11.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.3818,
    "contribution": -0.22411,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.3101,
    "contribution": 0.18204,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1615,
    "contribution": -0.09477,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss",
     "h_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.078,
    "contribution": 0.0458,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0685,
    "contribution": -0.04022,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T18:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.44648631653289345,
  "p_shipped": 0.49974504386942603,
  "model_mu": 11.167021418498091,
  "market_p": 0.517948717948718,
  "divergence": -0.07146240141582455,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 11.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T18:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.3877,
    "contribution": -0.22411,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.3143,
    "contribution": 0.18167,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1098,
    "contribution": -0.06346,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1091,
    "contribution": -0.06305,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0792,
    "contribution": 0.0458,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]