Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5058991769663863,
"p_shipped": 0.5211197552909025,
"model_mu": 5.600750208426505,
"market_p": 0.5231958762886597,
"divergence": -0.0172966993222734,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.4136,
"contribution": 0.25212,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"temp_out",
"day_game"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1994,
"contribution": 0.12154,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1245,
"contribution": -0.07592,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1181,
"contribution": -0.07201,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0876,
"contribution": 0.0534,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.0568,
"contribution": -0.03462,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T18:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.491244906841324,
"p_shipped": 0.48711904335973893,
"model_mu": 7.0170352906269144,
"market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
"divergence": 0.0002888344899028561,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 6.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T18:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.5014,
"contribution": 0.25843,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"temp_out",
"day_game"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2358,
"contribution": 0.12154,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1397,
"contribution": -0.07201,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0563,
"contribution": -0.02902,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.0375,
"contribution": 0.01935,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.0292,
"contribution": -0.01504,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.45059782657584707,
"p_shipped": 0.502654167475207,
"model_mu": 9.957091956260523,
"market_p": 0.5089974293059126,
"divergence": -0.05839960273006556,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 11.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.3818,
"contribution": -0.22411,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.3101,
"contribution": 0.18204,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1615,
"contribution": -0.09477,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.078,
"contribution": 0.0458,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.0685,
"contribution": -0.04022,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T18:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.44648631653289345,
"p_shipped": 0.49974504386942603,
"model_mu": 11.167021418498091,
"market_p": 0.517948717948718,
"divergence": -0.07146240141582455,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 11.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T18:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.3877,
"contribution": -0.22411,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.3143,
"contribution": 0.18167,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1098,
"contribution": -0.06346,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.1091,
"contribution": -0.06305,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0792,
"contribution": 0.0458,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
}
]