Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5554488266360078,
"p_shipped": 0.5142388348193001,
"model_mu": 5.657837247762717,
"market_p": 0.5116279069767442,
"divergence": 0.0438209196592636,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.4525,
"contribution": 0.3686,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"temp_out",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter threw 105+ pitches last start",
"share": 0.2605,
"contribution": 0.2122,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_prev_heavy",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1266,
"contribution": -0.1031,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0758,
"contribution": -0.06176,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0593,
"contribution": 0.04831,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.0253,
"contribution": -0.02063,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T23:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5222760399814711,
"p_shipped": 0.48152718275362555,
"model_mu": 6.933366999284072,
"market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
"divergence": 0.04165588494271133,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 6.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T23:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.4894,
"contribution": 0.3916,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"temp_out",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter threw 105+ pitches last start",
"share": 0.2652,
"contribution": 0.2122,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_prev_heavy",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1288,
"contribution": -0.1031,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.06,
"contribution": -0.04798,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.0308,
"contribution": -0.02466,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.0258,
"contribution": -0.02063,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5154015801838261,
"p_shipped": 0.4924772875341061,
"model_mu": 10.230601111324551,
"market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
"divergence": 0.026969703577142234,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 11.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.308,
"contribution": 0.11953,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2704,
"contribution": 0.10493,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1781,
"contribution": 0.06912,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.148,
"contribution": -0.05745,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Early-season sample on the home starter (2 starts)",
"share": 0.0956,
"contribution": -0.0371,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_pitches_30d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T23:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5149081119017833,
"p_shipped": 0.47742038450461816,
"model_mu": 11.42835326275361,
"market_p": 0.47557840616966585,
"divergence": 0.03932970573211747,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 11.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T23:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.3418,
"contribution": 0.13239,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2709,
"contribution": 0.10493,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1785,
"contribution": 0.06912,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.113,
"contribution": -0.04377,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Early-season sample on the home starter (2 starts)",
"share": 0.0958,
"contribution": -0.0371,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_pitches_30d"
]
}
]
}
]