Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5128582726376925,
"p_shipped": 0.4796580422672644,
"model_mu": 5.877549931993683,
"market_p": 0.5064599483204134,
"divergence": 0.006398324317279047,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 6.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.4306,
"contribution": 0.39891,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters strike out 17.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2169,
"contribution": 0.20096,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.139,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0944,
"contribution": -0.08746,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.067,
"contribution": -0.06209,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.052,
"contribution": 0.04819,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T23:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5002985091632788,
"p_shipped": 0.4831354781715935,
"model_mu": 6.841935595544015,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": 0.00029850916327878174,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 6.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T23:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.4676,
"contribution": 0.41655,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters strike out 17.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2256,
"contribution": 0.20096,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1729,
"contribution": -0.15406,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0982,
"contribution": -0.08746,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0356,
"contribution": -0.03175,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5331325288896799,
"p_shipped": 0.4908744473593539,
"model_mu": 11.86717664062694,
"market_p": 0.48071979434447304,
"divergence": 0.05241273454520684,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 11.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2628,
"contribution": 0.2019,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 17.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2528,
"contribution": 0.19428,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_rest_z"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2372,
"contribution": -0.18224,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.1526,
"contribution": 0.11723,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0947,
"contribution": -0.07274,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_off_bb30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T23:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5178102165882459,
"p_shipped": 0.5050637318355663,
"model_mu": 12.117573028344326,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": 0.0011007050201224944,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 11.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T23:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2331,
"contribution": 0.2019,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 17.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2243,
"contribution": 0.19428,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_rest_z"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2104,
"contribution": -0.18224,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.1809,
"contribution": -0.15668,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.1514,
"contribution": 0.13113,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
}
]
}
]