Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies

Wed 9/2 · 2:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 6.0

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 48%

TOTAL

no lean

model 53% under · market 52%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring52%

The home starter strikes out 15.2% of batters, adjusted — a lower strikeout rate than average18%

Offense profile leans over — mostly the away team10%

The home team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 — above league average7%

Hitter-friendly umpire zone5%

WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game

No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher — graded at league averageagainst the over7%

Market: First-5-innings Over 6.0 at +100 (pinnacle, quoted 1:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~7.0 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

anchor First-5 Over 6.0 +100 → closed -101 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)Deep into a road trip (game 7+)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 5 runs under its closing total — 6 runs against a total of 11. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5531124275532667,
  "p_shipped": 0.49360065398019193,
  "model_mu": 6.106342804040521,
  "market_p": 0.4742268041237113,
  "divergence": 0.07888562342955541,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 6.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.64,
    "contribution": 0.34685,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "temp_out",
     "day_game"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 15.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.1862,
    "contribution": 0.10091,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.0741,
    "contribution": 0.04016,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Hitter-friendly umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0514,
    "contribution": 0.02786,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0483,
    "contribution": 0.02615,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T18:00:47Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5414659837711046,
  "p_shipped": 0.4917058215797155,
  "model_mu": 6.989604032238329,
  "market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
  "divergence": 0.058261849404179444,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 6.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T18:00:47Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.5239,
    "contribution": 0.29376,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "temp_out",
     "day_game"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 15.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.18,
    "contribution": 0.10091,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1006,
    "contribution": 0.05641,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.0743,
    "contribution": -0.04164,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_backup_catcher"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.0716,
    "contribution": 0.04016,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Hitter-friendly umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0497,
    "contribution": 0.02786,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.4533479507809945,
  "p_shipped": 0.5073649447974443,
  "model_mu": 10.167834066801454,
  "market_p": 0.5205128205128204,
  "divergence": -0.06716486973182595,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 11.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.2524,
    "contribution": 0.22871,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2479,
    "contribution": -0.22468,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_k_pct30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2318,
    "contribution": -0.21007,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1868,
    "contribution": 0.16932,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 15.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.081,
    "contribution": 0.07341,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T18:00:47Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.4485593413259777,
  "p_shipped": 0.47464299439351454,
  "model_mu": 11.785158984179004,
  "market_p": 0.47814910025706947,
  "divergence": -0.02958975893109178,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 11.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T18:00:47Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2556,
    "contribution": -0.22468,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_k_pct30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.239,
    "contribution": -0.21007,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.2293,
    "contribution": 0.20153,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1926,
    "contribution": 0.16932,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 15.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.0835,
    "contribution": 0.07341,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]