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first pitch 7:40 PM CDT
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Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies

Wed 9/2 · 7:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
TOTAL · UNDER 11.0 RUNS
B
B cards like this have won 52% under · market 48% · stake 0.5u
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 51% under · market 51%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 10-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
Bullpen leans under38%
The home team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 — above league averageagainst the under22%
Starting pitchers leans under17%
Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoringagainst the under8%
Defense leans over — mostly the away teamagainst the under7%
WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game
No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home catcher — graded at league average9%
Market: Under 11.0 runs at +103 (pinnacle, quoted 6:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~11.1 runs · divergence 10 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.
Frozen C at 8:38 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade B. · new at this pass — the morning pass had no lean.
anchor Under 11.0 runs +103 → closed +104 · away
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Deep into a road trip (game 7+)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Heavily used bullpen
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.
SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 8 runs under its closing total — 3 runs against a total of 11. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5044356866234366,
  "p_shipped": 0.4792323997244059,
  "model_mu": 5.595070511164832,
  "market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
  "divergence": 0.02123155225651152,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 6.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.6018,
    "contribution": 0.36173,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 427 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.1867,
    "contribution": -0.11223,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1524,
    "contribution": 0.0916,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under",
    "share": 0.0426,
    "contribution": -0.02563,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0165,
    "contribution": 0.00991,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T23:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.48742008939272746,
  "p_shipped": 0.4874297227701792,
  "model_mu": 6.315786826211251,
  "market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
  "divergence": -0.003535982958693673,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 6.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T23:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.4938,
    "contribution": 0.26318,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 427 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.2106,
    "contribution": -0.11223,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1719,
    "contribution": 0.0916,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0758,
    "contribution": 0.04038,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under",
    "share": 0.0481,
    "contribution": -0.02563,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.43290797978947854,
  "p_shipped": 0.5052940533017993,
  "model_mu": 9.864081677514656,
  "market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
  "divergence": -0.08380153177864486,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 11.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
    "share": 0.3428,
    "contribution": -0.21821,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_k_pct30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1992,
    "contribution": 0.12681,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.1574,
    "contribution": -0.10019,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_whiff",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.1518,
    "contribution": 0.09663,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0783,
    "contribution": -0.04985,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0704,
    "contribution": -0.04484,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T23:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.42645725041552734,
  "p_shipped": 0.5010110490572877,
  "model_mu": 11.068832807319213,
  "market_p": 0.5218508997429305,
  "divergence": -0.09539364932740318,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 11.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T23:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
    "share": 0.3751,
    "contribution": -0.21821,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_k_pct30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.218,
    "contribution": 0.12681,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.1722,
    "contribution": -0.10019,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_whiff",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.0857,
    "contribution": -0.04985,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.0794,
    "contribution": 0.04617,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0696,
    "contribution": 0.04047,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]